Ukrainian army begins to 'demilitarize' Russian forces in Crimea. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Prospects for the return of Crimea

Crimea, temporarily occupied by the Russian enemy, is now again in the center of attention of influential international media, which sometimes express strange opinions. For example, I will mention a publication in The Economist magazine with a revealing title that Ukraine's attempt to return Crimea would be bloody and difficult, and Kyiv can hardly count on the West's support. At the same time, there is a clear attitude of the people of Ukraine, the military and political leadership of our country to the issue of Crimea, and it lies in the fact that only the return of Crimea will end the war. There is an expectation that this should happen next year.

According to Andrii Ryzhenko, captain of the 1st rank of the Naval Forces of Ukraine's Armed Forces and an expert of the Center for Defense Strategies, taking control of Crimea requires a certain amount of time and serious resources. This has been the case for the last 150 years during the wars around the peninsula, when one side had an advantage in numbers. This must be taken into account.  Moreover, the south of Crimea is a mountainous area, suitable for defense elements.

As for entering Crimea through the continental part of Ukraine, the offensive side must act out of the norm in order to solve the issue of entering the peninsula. The basis of the plan should be a non-standard solution with elements of advance preparation for such an operation. New high-tech weapons and careful analysis of the enemy's weak points can help the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this.

But since the annexation of Crimea, over the past 8 years, the Russian Federation has turned the peninsula into a bastion. Many defense and defense formations have been created there, starting with the 22nd Army Corps of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is currently operating on the territory of the temporarily occupied Kherson region. Now it is difficult to say in what state this group is. After all, for several months it was first on the right bank, and now on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.

The Ukrainian army has started the process of 'demilitarization' of Crimea, when we are talking about the Kerch bridge and strikes on airfields and bays of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. There are also other objects that will be able to reduce Russia's military potential on the peninsula.

Andrii Ryzhenko believes that it is necessary to destroy objects that provide the enemy with an advantage. These are airfields because Russia has air superiority. The enemy regularly launches airstrikes on the southern part of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' positions. We are also talking about the bays where the strike force of the Black Sea Fleet is concentrated: missile and amphibious ships.  Also, these are air defense systems, because they protect these airfields. Many S-300 and S-400 systems have now been transferred to Crimea. It is also necessary to identify places where missile weapons are concentrated, and these are targets for primary damage to the enemy. It is still necessary to identify elements of management systems, that is, communication, observation and decision-making points.

The expert of the Center for Defense Strategies noted that there are facilities in Crimea that are subject to questions regarding their purpose. In particular, the Sotka facility, the Inkerman Tunnels, and a base for submarines located in the rocks.

These objects are rather rare. The submarine base in Balaklava was created for projects that no longer exist, and large boats will not fit there. And since 1994, a lot of equipment has been dismantled at the base, then there was a museum of the Navy. Under certain conditions, the base can be restored. There were indications that some work was being done there in the area of ​​the exit vents from this submarine base. The Sotka facility is also outdated, but the Russians continue to use it.  It may be effective, but not as effective as modern complexes. Inkerman Tunnels can be used, they are still functioning, and rockets or other weapons can also be located there.

Additional military aid to Ukraine from Germany

There was information that Germany decided to supply Ukraine with an additional number of modern howitzers and anti-aircraft tanks, and this was announced by the head of the Bundestag defense committee, but it is not yet known about the number and timing of the supply of such weapons systems.

Oleh Katkov, a military expert and Defense Express Editor-in-Chief, noted that Gepard tanks are included in every package of military aid from Germany, their number is constantly increasing, and the supply of ammunition to the Gepard has also been decided. The system itself has proven to be quite effective, for example, it spends an average of 7 shells for an object like Shahed-136, and a maximum of 10. Similar applies to cruise missiles.

As for the Panzerhaubitze 2000, the number of these systems should be 25, and now we have 19. If we are talking exclusively about the transfer of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 by Germany, then we can expect another 10 such self-propelled guns from Berlin. This system has extremely high efficiency, but given its high degree of automation, these ACS fail, which is no secret. Their official standard of use is 100 shots per day, but in the conditions of real combat operations, 100 shots, in my opinion, is not adequate enough. According to information from The Wall Street Journal, a certain part of these self-propelled guns is constantly under repair, and even up to 50%.

Approximately, since September, Germany has multiplied its aid to armaments: both in monetary equivalent and in direct samples.

However, we do not yet see Leopard-2 in service with Ukraine's Armed Forces, but in any case, it must be approved by the German parliament. There are huge factors that allow us to be optimistic about this issue. The supply of tanks to Ukraine is not only to supply iron, but also to provide the entire material basis, starting with the trawl on which this tank must reach the battlefield. Ukraine has already started receiving such trawls not only from the USA, but also from Germany. This may be a good marker that the decision on the tanks has been made and official clearance is expected.  It is known that Ukrainian fighters are already undergoing appropriate training, and only a political decision is awaited. And if this decision is made, the equipment will already have crews.