Ukrainian armed forces to prevent Putin's plans to seize Bakhmut on invasion anniversary - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

It is noted that Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces aim to capture Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine, which would require a significantly higher rate of Russian advance than anything seen for many months. 

Experts recalled that the corresponding order of the Russian president was announced by NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov. According to him, the Russian Federation also aims to conduct a massive series of missile strikes for a year after the start of a full-scale invasion.

At the same time, the Institute's report says that the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhyn, recently stated that he expects to encircle Bakhmut by March or April.

"Prigozhin‘s pragmatic assessments of Russian advances in the Bakhmut area have generally been closer to tactical realities than assessments forecasting rapid Russian advances," analysts say.

It is emphasized that Russian forces do not appear to be quickening their rate of advance around Bakhmut and are unlikely to meet this reported February 24 goal.

"Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut would likely prevent Putin from claiming that Russian forces secured the city on the anniversary of the invasion in an attempt to renew hope in a Russian victory in Ukraine," ISW noted.

According to the analyzed data, experts note that the Kremlin may launch another series of missile strikes on civilian targets throughout Ukraine to mark the symbolic anniversary as actual military success continues to evade the Russian military.

Russian forces are reportedly increasing their use of airpower in Ukraine but are unlikely to dedicate significant amounts of airpower to combat operations over Ukrainian-controlled territory.

• On February 13, Bakhmut switched to a permit system. Civilians and the press can enter the city only with special passes. Less than five thousand residents remain in the city.

• On the same day, British intelligence stated that the Russian leadership faced a dilemma: fully seize Donbas or defend the land corridor to Crimea in Zaporizhzhia. ISW emphasized that by defending Bakhmut in Donetsk region, AFU created conditions for a future counteroffensive.

• According to Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesman for the AFU's Eastern Group, the enemy is suffering significant losses in the Bakhmut sector. The Russian army loses at least 50 soldiers every day, so it is forced to replenish its ranks with convicts. He also noted: "Bakhmut is the city where the enemy pays the most attention to its attacks.