ISW explains link between Bakhmut defense and AFU spring counteroffensive

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states this in the latest report.

American analysts note that there continue to be Western concerns about Ukraine’s determination to hold Bakhmut. In particular, The Washington Post also reported that US defense planners assess that Ukrainian forces are unable to simultaneously defend Bakhmut and launch a spring counteroffensive. Therefore, they have urged Ukraine to prioritize the spring counteroffensive over defending Bakhmut.

The Institute for the Study of War does not agree with such conclusions.

"ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s decision to defend Bakhmut is likely a strategically sound effort despite its costs for Ukraine. Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut has forced the Kremlin to expend much of the Wagner Group as a force and commit high-value Russian airborne forces to sustain attritional advances," the report said. US military experts emphasized that Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut has degraded significant Russian forces and will likely set favorable conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.

ISW believes that if Russian forces captured Bakhmut without significant resistance, they could hope to expand operations in a way that would force Ukraine to build hasty defensive positions on less favorable terrain.

"Therefore, Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut and undertaking an effort to set conditions for a counteroffensive are likely complementary, not mutually exclusive, activities considering that Russian forces would have continued their offensive beyond Bakhmut had Ukraine yielded the city earlier," the report concluded.

• On February 13, British intelligence stated that the Russian leadership faced a choice between completely occupying Donbas and defending the land bridge to Crimea in Zaporizhzhia.