New details on Dnipro strike and reasons behind Russian advance in Donetsk region. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Ukraine's military intelligence shares update on Russian ballistic missile attack on Dnipro 

The story of the new missile strike on Dnipro is gaining new details. On November 21, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that Russia had used an Oreshnik medium-range missile. According to Putin, this is a missile that has a speed of more than Mach 10, and modern air defense systems cannot intercept it. Putin said that the strike with this missile was a response to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strikes on Russian territory using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. By the way, Putin acknowledged that the strike by Ukrainian Defense Forces on the command post in the Kursk region was quite effective.

There is also a reaction from the US side to the attack on Dnipro. Two days ago, a Pentagon spokeswoman said that, according to US information, Russia had launched an experimental medium-range ballistic missile at Dnipro, which was based on the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental missile. It also acknowledged that the United States had been warned about the strike. It seems that Russia warned the United States that it would launch such a missile half an hour before the strike. I think that the Russians warned the United States about such a strike even earlier. Because the day before the strike, the American embassy was not open in Kyiv. 

On November 22, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence added a new wave to the assessment of the Russian attack on Dnipro. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, Russia actually used a missile from the Kedr system to strike Dnipro. In fact, we already have the third name for this weapon. 

According to the military intelligence, the flight time of this missile was 15 minutes. They also noted that the missile had 6 warheads, each equipped with 6 submunitions, and the speed at the final part of the flight was more than Mach 11. The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine also provided a list of companies involved in the production of the Kedr system. First of all, the Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering is mentioned. This structure is responsible for the Yars, Rubezh and Kedr missiles.

Kyrylo Budanov, the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, also added details about the Kedr system. He said that the missile that hit Dnipro was an experimental one, and as of October, the Russians had plans to make two prototypes, and it was not a mass production. Kyrylo Budanov also explained the difference between the Oreshnik and Kedr missiles. In particular, that Oreshnik is the name of a research project, and the system itself is called Kedr. It is a medium-range ballistic missile that can carry nuclear weapons.

In his turn, Deputy Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi said that the development of the Kedr missile system was based on the Rubezh system. However, something went wrong with the Russians, and in 2017 the development was stopped, and in 2018-2019 a research project called Oreshnik was launched. In fact, this work is aimed at replacing the RS-24 Yars complex. Skibitskyi said there have been three tests of the new system. One in 2021, the rest in 2023-2024. The strike on Dnipro was a test study of the new missile system in combat conditions. Parts of telemetry were found among the wreckage, i.e., parts that take all the parameters of this missile during the flight.

So, we are talking about using a new type of weapon in the form of a medium-range missile. After all, we are talking about a range of 850 kilometers. If this model is to replace the Yars systems, then this missile can claim an intercontinental ballistic range. In fact, this strike is an escalation, as it is a demonstrative step to intimidate. However, in this form, this missile is inaccurate. The strike on Dnipro was a cluster bombing. Russia has a limited number of such missiles. The rate of production is unclear, but it is certainly not high. Ukraine should study the situation in order to be ready to shoot down such missiles.

Putin claimed that this missile could not be intercepted, but he said the same thing about the Kinzhal and Zircon. Therefore, only practice is the criterion of truth. As for countermeasures, we can mention two missile defense bases in Poland and Romania. These two bases are designed to shoot down enemy medium-range missiles. The base in Romania, in particular, can cover the entire territory of Ukraine, as well as the Kapustin Yar test site, from where Russia launched a missile at Dnipro. This issue can be raised with our partners.

Russian offensive intensifies in the direction of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk region

                                                                                             Map of hostilities in Donetsk region as of November 22

Also, as noted by Andriy Petrenko, the spokesman of the 48th Detached Artillery Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian forces periodically resort to mechanized assaults. In particular, they try to break into settlements with vehicles. However, such attacks are often successfully destroyed by Ukrainian artillery. 

Petrenko noted that the Russians are trying to probe the territory in order to find weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense. The Russian troops keep reserves ready to be instantly deployed in places where the defense of Ukrainian units may be weak. That is why they are constantly trying to advance around Velyka Novosilka and find weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense.

Andriy Petrenko also shared his impressions of the Ukrainian Bohdana self-propelled artillery system. Despite the fact that before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there was only one example of this artillery system, the Ukrainian defense industry was able to establish quite effective production of these systems in the face of war. Petrenko noted that Bohdana self-propelled howitzers are quite durable and accurate.

“Ukrainian artillerymen are happy to work with Bohdana systems. Despite this, the Bohdana has shortcomings that are eliminated immediately after their use. According to Petrenko, the Bohdana is used along the entire front line, in particular, where our artillerymen are actively working.