Espreso. Global
OPINION

Putin is a rat cornering itself and waiting

24 January, 2025 Friday
15:12

We’ve heard a strong statement from the U.S. president about his future policy toward Russia. To dispel any illusions, Trump will to make a similar statement regarding Ukraine if deemed necessary

client/title.list_title

Therefore, Ukraine's primary task now is to clearly define its red lines and secure alignment with the United States on these boundaries. However, it must be acknowledged that NATO membership for Ukraine remains firmly off the table for the foreseeable future.

What will Putin’s reaction be?

Before exploring this, it’s crucial to highlight one key point: there is a consensus in the U.S. that any actions taken will not aim to force regime change in Russia. However, Putin, being deeply paranoid, fears this consensus might shift. This fear was evident both before Trump’s inauguration and prior to the start of the war in 2022, when Putin convened the Security Council to reaffirm the loyalty of his inner circle.

Putin's logic is as follows: he believes that if the U.S. rejects his ultimatum, Trump's office might decide that a mid-term goal will be to replace Putin himself and dismantle his regime. This is one of his biggest fears today. However, such a radical move today sparks more skepticism than optimism.

But let's return to Putin's possible actions. The Russian leader's strategy in such difficult situations is always the same: he waits. He is the rat that doesn't rush at the enemy but corners itself and waits for the situation to change. Putin is also clearly not ready for an open conflict with Trump, as his strategy now is to negotiate: "to sabotage the first round of talks through Ukraine." This seems to be well understood in Washington. And, among other factors, this is why Trump spoke to Putin not as an equal, but as a leader of a third-world country.

Recent days have shown that the Kremlin was completely unprepared for such a tough ultimatum. Therefore, the Russian strategy is as follows: military bloggers (ultra-nationalists) will stir up hysteria, claiming that this is no way to treat Russia, while the Kremlin will remain silent and wait for an opportunity to shift the topic. The fact that they are not silencing military bloggers indirectly confirms that Putin is not yet ready for negotiations.

Why did Trump issue such a tough ultimatum?

Trump must understand that under these conditions, Putin is unlikely to be willing to negotiate. However, he also understands that by raising the stakes so high, he can calmly explain why the war couldn’t be stopped in a single day.

Trump's team understands that it is highly likely that the Russians will set (or rather repeat) their previous unacceptable conditions:

  • Ukraine's official consent to the fact that the annexed territories are Russian (signing of the relevant document);
  • something about the status of the Russian language;
  • reduction of the army and closure of missile programs;
  • absolute sanctions lifting.

And the U.S. won’t be able to accept this. That’s why they are playing ahead.

What Trump didn’t anticipate was that he would not only be quoted in Russian space, but would become something of a "Russian Prigozhin," a new truth-teller. And his main message, which he unwittingly launched, is: "With Putin, there is war. Without Putin, there will be no war." Until now, this message existed only within a part of the liberal community. Trump has "broken the dam" for a large part of society that supports Putin but opposes the war (about 45%). This will become a new headache for the Kremlin in the coming months.

How will events develop further?

Indeed, as Trump said, the likelihood of effective negotiations still seems remote. The two basic factors for ending the war -  the loss of Chinese support and the collapse of Russia's oil capabilities - are still distant prospects. Therefore, Putin is likely to gamble and go all-in. However, if everything goes according to Trump's scenario, by winter, he will start to wear down, and China is unlikely to offer help.

A rapid end to the war is possible, but only with quick agreements between the U.S. and China. Alternatively, Putin must be globally frightened by something, and his greatest fear is his own life.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2025, Monday
10 February
12:11
Exclusive
Ukraine's Kostiantynivka becomes new focal point for Russian forces — military expert Zgurets
11:49
99 clashes at front on Feb. 9: Ukrainian forces repel 33 Russian attacks in Pokrovsk sector
11:30
Exclusive
Russian army lacks strong reserves in Pokrovsk sector — Ukrainian officer
11:12
Three key factors critical to stabilizing Russian-Ukrainian front — Ukraine’s top general
10:55
Russia can’t ignore heavy losses in Ukraine much longer — NATO military chief
10:37
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian troops trying to raise flags in Toretsk, Donetsk region
10:16
Russia launches overnight drone attack on Ukraine, hitting residential area in Sumy
09:54
Russia’s Krasnodar region reports drone attack: Afipsky oil refinery likely targeted
09:35
Russia loses over 850,000 soldiers in Ukraine since start of invasion
2025, Sunday
9 February
21:30
Drone Line: Ukraine's new large-scale military initiative
21:00
Zelenskyy: Russia pushes for elections in Ukraine to install puppet president
20:30
Zelenskyy: Putin plans to move on Poland, Hungary, Baltics after Ukraine
20:00
Invisible, cheap, and dangerous: Why Russians want to copy Ukraine's Chaklun drone
19:30
Why Hungary will supply Russian gas to Transnistria
19:00
Zelenskyy predicts Ukraine will recover Russian-occupied regions
18:30
Russian forces destroy gas facility in Kharkiv region
18:00
Germany spots suspicious drones over training base
17:35
Partisans identify Russian oil depot in Smolensk region
17:05
"Death to Ukrainians": The Day Muravyov’s army stormed Kyiv
16:35
Higher education and homes: Zelenskyy unveils military recruitment benefits for young men
16:05
Russia deploys Italmas drone – how dangerous is it?
15:35
16-hour battle: Ukraine's 47th brigade repels Russian, North Korean attacks in Kursk region
15:05
Russian tanker carrying 130,000 tons of fuel oil sinks in Leningrad region
14:37
North Korea uses Ukraine war to test military potential, experts say
13:40
Prince Harry honors Ukrainian heroes at Invictus Games 2025 opening
13:17
Exclusive
Russia can't keep advancing: It is running out of reserves
12:30
Russian spy ship ablaze near Syria, but how did it get there? – Defense Express
12:30
Exclusive
War will last years, until Russia's economy is exhausted: What Trump might ask Putin
12:00
Exclusive
Trump compares Ukraine to Gaza: Will he suggest resettling Ukrainians at his meeting with Zelenskyy?
11:30
How Ukrainian Air Defense and drone operators take down Russian military aircraf
11:00
Nuclear plant region in Western Ukraine hit by large-scale Russian attack
10:35
Russia loses aircraft, 24 artillery systems, 1,460 soldiers in one day in Ukraine – General Staff
2025, Saturday
8 February
20:00
Review
AIM-120 missiles: how Ukraine’s F-16s, NASAMS counter air, missile threats
19:40
Debate on peacekeepers in Ukraine are “inappropriate and premature”, says Scholz
19:26
Russia's artillery superiority decreased fivefold over past year - Ukraine’s top general
19:05
Putin expands Russian army for war, and not just against Ukraine — Zelenskyy
18:55
Updated
Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian Su-25 in Donetsk region
18:41
Exclusive
Ukraine’s defeat may prove to be strategic catastrophe for West - Russian opposition politician
18:18
Russian airstrike on Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region injures family
17:51
Ukraine’s Kursk operation aims to prevent Russian advance on Sumy, Kharkiv regions - Zelenskyy
More news