Russia trades missiles, air defense systems, oil in exchange for North Korean troops - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War reports.

A research group in the United Kingdom, citing satellite images, told the BBC that Moscow has provided North Korea with more than a million barrels of oil. It is noted that more than 10 DPRK oil tankers have arrived empty at an oil terminal in the far east of Russia and departed with full tanks 43 times since March 2024.

According to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Russian oil is a payment for the DPRK's military and weapons.

At the same time, South Korea's intelligence agency said Pyongyang had received an undetermined number of air defense systems and anti-aircraft missiles from Moscow.

It is emphasized that all such actions violate UN sanctions against the DPRK.

“South Korean experts theorized that Russia may have provided S-400 air defense systems to North Korea, as North Korea is capable of building shorter-range systems domestically,”   ISW writes.

The analysts add that the supply of Russian S-400s to North Korea “would be a significant inflection, however, as Russia reportedly decided earlier this year to delay the delivery of two promised S-400 air defense systems to India until August 2026 and continues to delay providing Iran with S-400 systems.”

Military cooperation between Russia and North Korea

On October 4, the Kyiv Post reported that 20 soldiers were killed in a missile strike on occupied Donetsk, including six North Korean military personnel advising the Russian army.

The South Korean Defense Minister warned on October 8 that North Korea may deploy troops to Ukraine in support of Russia.

At an October 17 press conference in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed Russia's plan to train 10,000 North Korean soldiers for combat in Ukraine.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, later reported that 11,000 North Korean infantrymen are training in eastern Russia, preparing for deployment to Ukraine. He added that the first unit of 2,600 soldiers is en route to Kursk, where Ukraine has established a stronghold.

Ukraine has since shared intelligence with NATO about North Korea’s military involvement and requested data from alliance members.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that the participation of the North Korean military in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia would mean a “significant escalation.” 

Later, it was reported that South Korea was considering providing Ukraine with military and intelligence assistance in response to North Korea's sending its military to fight on the side of Russia.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported that on October 23, the North Korean military was spotted in the Kursk region.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that according to intelligence, the first North Korean military would be used by Russia in combat zones on October 27-28.

On October 25, South Korea's intelligence agency announced that North Korea plans to send a second batch of its military personnel to Russia, totaling up to 10,000 people.

On October 28, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the presence of North Korea's military in Russia’s Kursk region, noting that this is “a major escalation in DPRK’s ongoing role in Russia’s illegal war.” 

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia was already using DPRK military personnel on the territory of Ukraine and that up to 12,000 troops could be deployed to Russian training grounds from the DPRK.

On October 31, reports stated that North Korea had dispatched three of its generals to Russia, including the DPRK's deputy chief of general staff, who also serves as the head of the country's main intelligence bureau.

On the same day, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that, according to recent reports, up to 8,000 DPRK troops had been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.

On November 1, President Zelenskyy announced that the first thousand North Korean soldiers were already positioned near the Ukrainian border. Additionally, Ukraine's intelligence indicated that in the last week of October, Russia had relocated over 7,000 North Korean army soldiers from its territory to areas close to Ukraine.