Ukraine's successful offensive will cause geopolitical consequences for Russia and encourage West to help Ukraine - NYT

The New York Times writes about this.

The new Ukrainian campaign will be a test of its army’s ability to re-arm and reconstitute battalions while maintaining the motivation and maneuvering skills that gave it an edge in three previous counteroffensives, the NYT writes.

"Success for Ukraine in the battles on the southeastern plains would drive home to the world the declining military might of Russia, ease concerns that the war has settled into a quagmire and most likely encourage Ukraine’s allies to further arm and finance Kyiv in the war," the outlet notes.

According to the NYT, a future counteroffensive would be a very serious challenge for Ukraine.

"Ukrainian officers will have to choreograph artillery, infantry and armored vehicle assaults that crash through Russian trenches, tank traps and minefields. In the south, Russian units have been building defensive positions since they were pushed out of the Kherson region in November. Sophisticated Western tanks, with better survivability and firepower, will be critical in uprooting those positions," the newspaper emphasizes.

Evelyn Farkas, director of the McCain Institute, told the NYT that Ukraine is capable of inflicting losses on the Russian army that could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences if weapons and trained troops fall into place in time.

In her opinion, "Ukraine could render Russia a weakened military power in Eastern Europe with little leverage in negotiations to end the war."

She said that people "only envision what they see now," but much could change with the influx to the front lines of the new Western weaponry and the tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who have been training for the operation at home and in Europe.

However, the NYT notes that the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is hardly assured, as the allies have dragged their feet in sending weaponry, and soldiers have had to make do with crash courses in assault tactics.

The weaponry and equipment for breaching trench lines and crossing minefields is falling into place, though it remains unclear if in sufficient quantity, the newspaper writes.

The counteroffensive, at least in its opening stages, could well hinge on crossing sprawling minefields, military analysts say. To do so, Ukraine will be relying on the unglamorous but crucial mine-clearing machines it has in its Soviet-era arsenal. It has captured some from retreating Russians and is now also receiving mine-clearing devices from the West.

The NYT notes that the demining can be done manually, with specially trained soldiers probing the soil and keeping a close eye for trip wires as they walk in front of assault units, or with specialized mine-clearing machinery. 

It is expected that Ukraine will strike in the south, where the terrain ranges from wide-open farm fields, with only sparse tree lines for cover, to towns and villages. 

"A thrust of about 50 miles over the steppe from the current front lines to the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol would split Russian-held territory into two zones, sever supply lines and put Ukrainian artillery within range of Russian bases on the Crimean Peninsula," the NYT writes.

At the same time, the newspaper writes, morale, an area in which Ukrainian fighters held an edge for much of the war, is becoming more of a challenge. 

In a dozen or so recent interviews, soldiers at positions near Bakhmut or emerging from the crucible of street fighting for short breaks expressed dismay at the scale of violence and death.

In one of the most striking examples of military rebuilding, the NYT notes, that the Interior Ministry was reconstituting the decimated Azov unit, whose active-duty soldiers were killed, wounded, or captured in the siege of Mariupol and the holdout at the Azovstal Steel Plant last spring. Others died in an explosion at a Russian prisoner of war barracks in Olenivka.