UK intelligence analyses possible change in funding for Wagner PMC

The UK Ministry of Defense reported the information.

They said that Wagner group is moving towards a process of downsizing and reformatting, mainly to save on staff salaries in a period of financial pressure.

The report notes that after the failed coup led by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023, Russia may have acted against some of his other businesses.

"There is a realistic possibility that the Kremlin no longer funds the group. If the Russian state no longer pays Wagner, the second most plausible paymasters are the Belarusian authorities," British intelligence said.

At the same time, the British Ministry of Defense emphasizes that such expenditures would be "an unwelcome drain on modest Belarusian resources."

How the Wagner soldiers ended up in Belarus

After the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin announced the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus.

On June 27, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, Wagner mercenaries  who arrived with him will not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed there. However, Lukashenko emphasized that he expects the mercenaries to help in the defense of Belarus, without specifying the potential source of the country's perceived threat.

Later, on July 23, self-appointed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the desire of the mercenaries from the Russian Wagner PMC to "go on an excursion" to Poland. The same day, it was reported that the tenth column of Wagner's mercenaries, which included at least ten pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

On June 29, a satellite recorded the construction of a tent camp near Asipovichy in the Mogilev region of Belarus, and on July 3, Russian media published a photo of an alleged Wagner camp.

On July 11, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that the Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian army.

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On the morning of July 15, a large convoy of cars and trucks with license plates of the so-called DPR and LPR was spotted in Belarus. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed that those were mercenaries of the Wagner PMC.

On Sunday, July 16, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that two flags - of Russia and the Wagner PMC - had been installed at the checkpoint on the border between Belarus and Russia.

Wagner Group announced that on July 30, their main base in the Russian Federation, located in the village of Molkino in Krasnodar Krai, would be closed.

On July 19, Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin addressed Wagner fighters in Belarus, calling the situation at the front a "disgrace" and urging mercenaries to "wait for the moment to show their full potential."

Later, on July 23, self-appointed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the desire of the mercenaries from the Russian Wagner PMC to "go on an excursion" to Poland. Later, on the same day, it became known that a 10th column of Wagner mercenaries, with at least 10 pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

The Institute for the Study of War said that there are no signs that Wagner's forces in Belarus have the heavy weapons necessary for a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland.

On July 25, the 11th Wagner convoy arrived in Belarus, this time with armored vehicles. The convoy included at least 29 vehicles. Also, the leader of the Wagner forces in Belarus was revealed.

On July 27, the National Resistance Center reported that Wagner PMC units were looking for people in Belarus who were ready to fight against Lithuania and Poland. Also the same day Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that the twelfth column of Wagner's PMC, which included at least 50 pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

On July 28, the Center for National Resistance warned that Wagner mercenaries were preparing provocations on the border of Belarus with the EU. Also that day, the 13th column of mercenaries was spotted in Belarus.

On July 31, media reported that Wagner PMC had suspended the work of its regional centers for recruiting mercenaries "for an indefinite period." Also, on the order of financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, they have until August 5 to arrive at camps in the Republic of Belarus. 

Another location of Wagner PMC was discovered in Belarus near Asipovichy, where mercenaries are using warehouses.

On August 3, Wagner PMC mercenaries settled in Belarus near the border with Lithuania, in the city of Grodno. President Gitanas Nausėda is concerned about the security situation.

On August 4, the SBU uncovered a plan by Russia to conduct a terrorist attack on an oil refinery in Belarus to blame Ukraine and provoke a war. A Russian subversive group, which consists of career military officers, is supposed to be under the cover of Wagner mercenaries and Ukrainian saboteurs.

Subsequently, the British Ministry of Defense suggested that Russia was interested in presenting the Belarusian forces as opposed to NATO.