Russia’s planned false flag operation in Black Sea and Ukraine’s dilemma

In my perspective, it is more crucial for the occupying Russian forces to target ships heading for the temporarily Russian-controlled ports of Crimea or Novorossiysk rather than those heading to Ukraine. The aim of such an attack is to pin the blame on the Ukrainian military in order to harm Ukraine's reputation.

Unfortunately, ships with different flags have been reaching Crimea on a regular basis since 2014.

Syrian phosphates, for example, are regularly transported into Crimea via the Bosporus, providing cash to dictator Bashar al-Assad and the sanctioned Russian businessman Gennady Timchenko.

Furthermore, Russia transfers oil throughout the world using a shadow fleet. For example, vessels belonging to the Indian business Gatik, bearing the Gabonese flag and engaged in the delivery of Russian oil from Novorossiysk to Vadinar in India, call at Novorossiysk on a regular basis.

Greek and Turkish shipowners also participate in the illegal Russian oil trade. Their shadow fleet was recently augmented by the Panamax tanker 50,000 tonnes deadweight T Rex, which is already actively visiting Chernomortransneft's Sheskharis terminal in Korfez.

Any of these ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and so on, regardless of flag, Gabon, Turkey, or Greece, can be targeted by the Russian navy to discredit Ukraine. As soon as this occurs, the Russian propaganda machine will immediately turn on.

All resources available to Moscow, both inside and outside of Russia, in other nations, informational, political, and otherwise, will blame Ukraine for this attack 24 hours and seven days a week.

This is the most likely and favorable scenario for Moscow. 

Although we do not live in the Middle Ages, such a "operation" would not be difficult to expose. However, to tell the truth, Ukraine has complete authority to sink any ships that illegally enter the ports of temporarily controlled Crimea, i.e. all of them. Isn't it a dilemma?

Source

About the author: Oleksandr Kovalenko is a Ukrainian journalist and a military expert. 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.