Russia's new strategy and false statements about "peace" 

What can be "new Russian strategy". And why declarations of peace are now just words.

As of now, Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine can be divided into several stages: from desired "take Kyiv in three days" to real failure to take Bakhmut in six months.

At the first stage, the Russian command planned to take at least Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv and Odesa in two weeks. And even the entire Left Bank Ukraine.

This stage ended in complete collapse at the beginning of April, when Mykolaiv became a fortress in the іouth, and a large Russian grouping had to flee from Kyiv.

Sometime in May, Russians moved to the second stage, aimed at seizing entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions. In the end, they stumbled upon Bakhmut.  Considering several lines of strong Ukrainian defense in Donbas, built since 2015, the declared "liberation of Donbas" does not seem possible.

"Raising Putin's stakes with "referendum" and "inclusion of four regions into Russian Federation" did not add either military success or motivation to his military. In the end, Russian troops fled from Kherson, and have rather uncertain position in Zaporizhzhia region."

Raising Putin's stakes with "referendum" and "inclusion of four regions into Russian Federation" did not add either military success or motivation to his military. In the end, Russian troops fled from Kherson, and have rather uncertain position in Zaporizhzhia region.

Therefore, since October 10, strategy has changed somewhat and consisted in "freezing" Ukrainian cities, destroying infrastructure and making Ukrainian territory, which they will not be able to conquer, uninhabitable.

After the failure of this plan due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian Air Defense Forces and literal exploits of energy workers, this strategy is also bursting at the seams.

By the way, now it seems that Russian troops still plan to focus on the capital region, Kyiv and region, in order to use remnants of their missile potential as concentrated as possible. Kyiv is clearly a bone in their throat, a symbol that must be broken.

However, for the time being, this leads to the strengthening of Ukrainian air defense, and from the beginning of spring this strategy will be irrelevant.

Russian troops desperately need a new strategy. Even if they throw all their forces from those mobilized to Bakhmut-Vuhledar line, maximum they will achieve is to plunge into even more powerful line of defense in ​​Kostiantynivka-Slavyansk-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk area. And they understand it.

Conditionally, this is a certain dead end for Russians, since stretching of troops does not guarantee them victory. Probably, this is where Putin's latest statements about readiness "for dialogue" in "fulfilment of demands" and recognition of all occupied territories come from. And it is obvious that the Ukrainian side will reject it.

"This is a certain dead end for Russians, since stretching of troops does not guarantee them victory. Probably, this is where Putin's latest statements about readiness "for dialogue" in "fulfilment of demands" and recognition of all occupied territories come from. And it is obvious that the Ukrainian side will reject it."

Therefore, the option of "stretching" Ukrainian troops is quite likely, because of possible new offensive on Kharkiv, for which, according to General Melnyk, groups of more than 200,000 mobilized troops can be used.

There is the greatest motivation, since shelling of warehouses in Belgorod and Shebekino, as well as fire control along route from Belgorod, does not allow them to secure their grouping in Svatove and Lysychansk.

My sources say that they are also gathering strike groups from the Kursk region in the direction of the Sumy region.

Some talk about possible offensive in ​​Rivne or even Kyiv, but considering the fact that line of defense has finally appeared there since February, this seems unlikely, if, of course, Lukashenko continues to avoid involvement of Belarusian forces, who are doomed to play the role of suicide bombers here.

It seems much more likely that group will grow in Zaporizhzhia region. There are constant supplies from Crimea here, and this direction is precisely dangerous for Russians, since Ukrainian breakthrough in the direction of Melitopol threatens them by cutting the land corridor to Crimea. Therefore, situation there can be the most fierce.

All this is about a long war. And its fate will directly depend on resources. These resources are people and weapons. A new wave of mobilization is de facto beginning in Ukraine, and it is very necessary.  Heavy weapons are even more needed.  And sufficient stocks of shells. This is understood by Western allies, who in fact have already given go-ahead for supply of additional HIMARS, tanks and self-propelled guns.

Russia also understands this. There, a significant part of the economy is transferred to military rails, and factories in Ural are working. Actual ally that supplies Russia with weapons is Iran, and potentially Moscow is also trying to establish cooperation with China, which until now has maintained neutrality.

Well, of course, the fate of war will be determined by intelligence of military operations, where General Zaluzhnyi and Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff are ahead of Surovikin. And motivation of the army. This is what gave us a head start at the beginning of war, what prompted the West to support Ukraine, and what is the main component of such desired Ukrainian victory.

Both the West and Ukraine would like to end the war by the end of 2023. War is exhausting Ukraine, killing Ukrainians.  And in the West, in the EU and the USA, there will be elections in 2024, and current politicians would prefer to go to them with the attitude of winning their policy of supporting Ukraine. Therefore, the year that has begun will be difficult, but has every chance to become decisive.

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About the author: Victoria Siumar, journalist, media expert.

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