Russians intensify their efforts to achieve at least some success before losing initiative — ISW

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write about this.

The Institute's report notes that Russian forces have made minor gains in and around Bakhmut amid reports of increased Russian operations around Avdiivka.

As of March 20, Russian troops have likely gained additional positions to the southwest and north of Bakhmut, as well as to the northwest of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove.

ISW reports that the increased pace of Russian operations in the Avdiivka area has resulted in significant casualties and is likely a misguided attempt to divert Ukrainian forces from other areas of the front.  At the same time, analysts have not noticed that Russian troops are concentrating significant combat power on the outskirts of Donetsk, and it is unlikely that the occupiers will be able to withstand this temporarily increased pace.

According to ISW, Russia's overall spring offensive is likely nearing its climax, and Russian forces may step up efforts to make even modest gains before losing the initiative on the front.

"It remains possible that Russian advances could prompt Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut and/or Avdiivka although neither appears likely at this time," experts report.

• ISW report also states that China will not provide Putin with economic or military support to overcome the failures in Ukraine