November analysis: missiles, drones used by Russia against Ukraine

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko has analyzed Russia's month-long terror campaign in a joint project by OBOZ.UA and Information Resistance.

As of early November 2024, Russia had about 1,600 missiles of various types in stock, but not all of these were used in the combined attacks on Ukraine.

There was some confusion in identifying the specific types of cruise missiles used, as official sources often grouped Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-55, and Kalibr missiles. However, the Kh-101/555/55 missiles have been and continue to be the primary weapon used in these strikes.

Missile attacks in November

In November 2024, Russian forces carried out two major missile attacks on Ukraine, along with a series of smaller, targeted strikes.

Types and numbers of missiles used:

• Kh-101/555/55 and 3M-14 Kalibr: 199 missiles launched, 173 shot down
• Kh-59/69: 27 missiles launched, 18 shot down
• 9M723/728 Iskander-M/K/KN-23/unspecified type ballistic missiles: 18 missiles launched, 3 shot down
• Kh-47M2 Kinzhal: 9 launched, 7 shot down
• Kh-22: 2 launched, 2 shot down
• KH-31P: 4 launched, 2 shot down
• 3M22 Zircon: 1 launched, 1 shot down
• Unknown type: 8 launched

The two large-scale missile attacks took place on the nights of November 17 and 28, with a break of about a week and a half between them. This interval matches the typical pause between major strikes, assuming there is a steady supply of munitions. However, if additional reconnaissance, flight planning, or route adjustments are required, the gap between attacks can extend from one and a half weeks to two weeks.

In total, in November, Russian forces launched 269 missiles of various types, hitting 206 targets.

Russia often uses 9M723 ballistic missiles in areas where Ukraine lacks the necessary air defense systems, making these missiles harder to intercept. However, the total number of ballistic missiles used in November was average. Additionally, three of the missiles fired were of an unknown type, possibly suggesting new models supplied by North Korea.

Most of the missile strikes in November were concentrated in Odesa (7 strikes), Dnipropetrovsk (7), Sumy (6), and Mykolaiv (3) regions.

Shahed, Gerbera, and other drone attacks

In November 2024, drone attacks continued to set records, with a total of 2,420 reported. The hit rate was about 74, or roughly 3% of the total.

For comparison, in October, there were 1,917 drone attacks, with 86 successfully intercepted (about 5%), and in September, 1,327 attacks with 46 hits (around 3%).

In addition to Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones, Russia is still using decoy drones like Gerbera, Parody, and other cheaper models to distract air defense systems.

Read also: Russia's deadly air strikes: expert assesses weaponry used against Ukraine in August

Looking back, in January 2024, 334 Shahed-136 drones led to 90 hits, and in March, 603 Shaheds resulted in 87 hits - despite the absence of decoy drones during those months.

Kovalenko notes that this shows a clear improvement in the effectiveness of Ukraine’s air defense systems, which have become more successful at intercepting drones, even with an increased workload.

Use of FPV drones by Russian forces in November

In November, Russian forces used FPV drones at a lower rate, with around 10,000 deployed. This marks a decrease compared to previous months, where they set records - about 12,000 in September and over 13,000 in October.

The military expert says it’s unclear whether this drop is due to worsening weather conditions, which limit drone use, or a reduction in supply from China. 

Lancet loitering munition

In November, the use of Lancet barrage munitions remained very low. Sometimes only 2-3 Lancet munitions were used or none at all.

Conclusions

In November, Russian forces continued their attacks on Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Air Force, along with other air defense units, faced one of its heaviest workloads in recent months. A record number of targets, including decoy drones, were launched to overwhelm air defenses and increase the chances of missile breakthroughs. Despite this, air defense effectiveness remained high, and the damage to Ukraine's power grid was comparable to previous, less intense attacks.

This suggests that while Russia may reduce the frequency of massive missile strikes, they still have enough ammunition to carry out 3-4 large attacks, spaced about one to two weeks apart, along with smaller reconnaissance strikes using limited munitions.

December could see at least three missile attacks - both large and smaller ones - especially around the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

Russia continued to use Shahed-131/136 'kamikaze' drones and decoy drones at a high rate, setting a new record that may increase even more in December.

In November, the use of FPV drones dropped for the first time in several months. The reasons for this are still unclear but could be linked to worsening weather conditions or a possible decline in drone supplies from China.

As for the Lancet drones, their use continued to decline, and this trend is unlikely to change shortly.

• On the evening of Sunday, December 1, the Russian occupying army launched attack drones at Ukraine. In Ternopil, a drone struck a high-rise building, leaving one person dead and three others injured.