Russia's deadly air strikes: expert assesses weaponry used against Ukraine in August

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko has analyzed Russia's month-long terror campaign in a joint project by OBOZ.UA and Information Resistance.

Missile strikes

In August 2024, Russian forces launched both regular single missile strikes and rare combined strikes. After a combined strike on Kyiv on July 8, the next occurred on August 26, following a month-and-a-half buildup.

For single strikes, Russia primarily used Kh-59/69 missiles and 9M723/728 Iskander-M/K missiles. The breakdown of missile types used throughout August is as follows:

• Kh-59/69: 18

• 9M723/728 Iskander-M/K: 61

• Kh-101/555/55: 82

• Kalibr IRBM: 28

• Kh-47M2 Kinzhal: 6

• Kh-22: 7

• Unknown types: 26

Additional launches of Kh-35, Kh-38ML, and Kh-31P missiles were also recorded.

In total, Russian forces used 223 missiles, one of the highest monthly totals during the full-scale invasion.

Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 126 missiles, a relatively low number due to the heavy use of ballistic missiles by Russian forces, including over 60 Iskander-M/K missiles. This high usage is likely linked to renewed missile supplies from North Korea rather than increased domestic production in Russia.

The regions most frequently targeted were Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk. These areas lack the protection of Patriot and SAMP/T missile systems, allowing Russian forces to strike them with ballistic missiles with little resistance.

Shahed-131/136

In August 2024, Russian forces deployed a record 789 Shahed-136 'kamikaze' drones, marking an all-time high. 

Recently, Russian forces have started using Gerbera drones alongside the Shahed-136. These cheaper, simplified drones are primarily intended to distract and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses, forcing them to expend ammunition. When air defense systems intercept these drones, they're often not distinguished from Shahed-136s. As a result, the reported record number of Shahed-136s likely includes a mix of Gerberas.

Since March, Russian forces have been using an average of 350-400 Shahed-131/136 drones each month. This steady use allowed them to build up stockpiles for a mass terror campaign in August, especially targeting Ukraine's Independence Day in the latter half of the month.

There is no current evidence to suggest a significant increase in Shahed-136 production in Iran or Russia, which would enable the consistent launch of 700-800 'kamikaze' drones monthly on Ukrainian territory.

FPV drones

In August, Russian forces continued to use FPV drones at a high rate, deploying around 10,000 units. While not a record, this is still significant, with an average daily use of 350 drones. There were spikes, such as on August 19, when up to 600 FPV drones were used, followed by drops to 250-300 units.

It's unclear how China's new export restrictions on civilian UAVs, effective from September 1, will impact this. However, it's possible that Russian forces have stockpiled enough FPV drones to maintain their current level of usage for some time.

Lancet barrage munitions

The use of Lancet barrage munitions by Russian forces has remained consistent, averaging about 10 per day, with no significant changes reported

Conclusions

In August, Russian forces launched a massive, anticipated strike on Ukraine, using missiles produced over a month and a half and a record number of Shahed-131/136 'kamikaze' drones. Last month was the most active for strikes, largely due to the significance of August 24, and it stressed the limitations of Russia's ability to sustain such attacks regularly.

September is unlikely to see the same intensity of missile strikes and drone attacks as August. Instead, the Russian command may shift its focus to targeting the heating season with these strikes.

• In August 2024, Russian forces in Ukraine continued to suffer increasing losses, setting new records in personnel and equipment. However, losses decreased in areas where Russian army struggles with production and recovery.