Russian forces' failures on the right bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson region may have a domino effect -  Serhiy Zgurets column

Displacing Russians from the right bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson region will be a very long process

It is worth starting with the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the South of Ukraine, where the operation of liberation of the occupied territories on the right bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson region is underway. Details and results remain confidential due to the planned silence of the Ukrainian side about the progress of the counteroffensive. The enemy tries to use the information blackout for its propaganda purposes, but it only causes laughter. Yesterday Russian military units saw a Leopard-2 tank in the Ukrainian steppes, and today the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation set yet another record of lies. The Russians officially announced that they destroyed 4 US-made Bradley BMPs in the South of Ukraine. But, actually, these BMPs are not in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Displacing the enemy from the right bank of the Dnipro river will be a very long and multi-step process. It now combines the active use of artillery, aviation and long-range means of destruction with the actions of Ukrainian units on land. British intelligence says that the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kherson region is focused on three directions and a certain tactical suddenness has been achieved due to poor logistical and tactical support and leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Constant firing from the Ukrainian side will only increase, and the enemy's problems with logistics due to this will increase as well. OC "South" traditionally reports on strikes on the Antoniv and Kakhov bridges and pontoon crossings. Today, one of the sections of the Kakhovska Dam collapsed. The number of aircraft and drone flights is increasing, which may indicate suppression of the enemy's air defense system.

The presence of 12,000-15,000 Russian soldiers at the bridgehead becomes more and more problematic, although for the Russian Federation to keep this bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river is a military and political necessity. This failure will be very resonant and may have a domino effect when the situation starts to collapse on other fronts as well. Ukrainian Armed Forces don't have from 1 to 3 or from 1 to 5 numerical advantage to attack in a classic way. It is important for them to find weak points in the Russian defense and conduct breakthrough operations there. There is a belief that if Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to go deep into the bridgehead for 10-15 km, then they will be able to take it not only under fire control using long-range means of destruction, but also using artillery. Including transport routes to Kakhovka and Kherson. The situation of Russians there will drastically become worse. It will not be possible for occupiers even to breathe.

The battle for Kherson may not take place

In the evening briefing, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that in Kherson region, servicemen of the 127th Regiment of the First Army Corps rebelled and refused to fight because they were left without water. With the loss of Russians to the access to logistical routes, the battle for Kherson, which looks like a difficult task, may not take place, because the enemy will have to flee. If so, then Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to redirect part of our forces and resources to intensify their operations in the other directions. Currently, the Ukrainian military cannot perform multiple operations at the same time. It is in the South that Ukrainians impose their agenda, because for 6 months they were forced to react to the actions of the Russian Federation.

In the East, the situation is steadily difficult

It is worth mentioning Bakhmut, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces restrain the enemy's attempts to advance to the city. The situation there remains steadily difficult and our infantry makes it impossible for the enemy to advance in the zone from Donetsk - this is Avdiivka, Maryinka. Everyone there mentions that we need more weapons and artillery. We need to find a way to counter this attack in these areas of the front.

Ukraine needs tanks and armored vehicles for a counteroffensive

On September 8, we expect a meeting of Ministers of Defence in the "Ramstein" format, which will be another impetus for the supply of a significant amount of weapons to Ukraine. And US President Joe Biden asks for another $11 billion for military and budget aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that the Ukrainian military is expecting the supply of Abrams tanks from the USA, and Leopard-2 tanks from Germany. The Ukrainian Armed Forces need this on the battlefield, but it looks like that it will not be possible to get it literally according to the results of the fifth "Ramstein", although Ukrainians really need tanks for counteroffensive operations and they lack armored vehicles significantly. In addition to tanks, everyone mentions ATACMS - missiles with a range of 300 km to 22 HIMARS and MLRS launchers, which the Ukrainian army already has.

Before the meeting, the influential magazine Defense News published an article where experts said that Ukraine needs ATACMS and explained why it is needed right now. Everyone should understand that even these missiles will not become a super effective decision that will allow Ukrainians to instantly change the course of the war.

In the context of Ramstein, it is worth mentioning the letter of 20 most influential American politicians, diplomats and military, who tried to force Biden to take a step to increase the possibilities of strengthening Ukraine on the battlefield. All of them reproach the US President for insufficient support of Ukraine in this segment. The question is quite acutely raised: "Are we supplying arms to Ukraine so that it can win a victory over Russia or so that it can hold the front and prevent further aggression by the Russian Federation?". Ben Hodges, the former commander of US forces in Europe, who is among the signatories, said that Ukraine could push back the Russian occupiers at the February 23 position by the end of the year, but for a decisive effect, the West must supply weapons in sufficient quantities.