Unique situation unfolds in presidential elections in Romania

This was stated by the author of the Resurgam Telegram channel.

He stresses that for Ukraine, the outcome of this election matters because foreign policy is a key responsibility of the president.

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel reminds that the main contenders were the current pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and his pro-Russian opponent Gheorghe Simion. Ciolacu is currently in third place, just 1,500 votes behind Elena Lasconi, who is in second. Meanwhile, the pro-Russian Simion is in fourth place.

“In a surprise, pro-Russian far-right candidate Călin Georgescu topped the first round. He is a supporter of Putin. To sum up his views, he once wrote: ‘Ukraine is an artificial state, a Frankenstein created by Lenin by taking land from other countries,’” he added.

Read also: Anti-Western candidate Călin Georgescu wins first round of Romanian elections

According to Resurgam, the key factor in Călin Georgescu's surprising victory in the first round was the support from voters abroad. While he was in 3rd or 4th place when domestic votes were counted, Georgescu surged ahead once the overseas votes started coming in.

“Romanian polling is often highly inaccurate. Before the election, Georgescu was ranked 5th in most polls, with 12-15% support. Even after the exit polls, he was still in 3rd or 4th place with 15-17%. However, to be fair to Romanian polling, the 'Georgescu factor' was hard to predict because the gaps between candidates were small, and the decisive overseas votes were difficult to count”, the expert adds.

According to him, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu's poor performance is likely due to three factors: a corruption scandal, a weak economy, and his refusal to take part in debates.

Romania has one of the highest inflation rates and largest budget deficits in the EU. On top of that, a corruption scandal involving the prime minister broke out just weeks before the election, leading to calls for him to withdraw.

This scandal gained traction right before the vote, making it a major factor in potential election manipulation or outside interference. The timing of the scandal also made it hard for pollsters to track changes, as the full impact of such events usually shows up in 2-3 weeks.

The third factor was that, probably because of the scandal, Ciolacu refused to join the debate to avoid tough questions. He said he didn’t need to because he was already “leading with a 10% margin and 35% support.” This led to a big surprise for him, as his support dropped to 19.1%, not enough to make it to the second round.

“What’s next? The second round will be a battle over geopolitics. If Ciolacu doesn’t pass Elena Lasconi and take second place, the final race will be between the pro-Moscow, anti-Western Georgescu and Lasconi,” Resurgam states.

Like Ciolacu, Lasconi supports Ukraine. She’s in favor of sending weapons and joining NATO. In her words: “No one has the right to force Ukraine to give up any land. Ukraine must keep its territorial integrity, or it will only encourage more aggression from Putin,” Lasconi said.

Resurgam concludes that the “Georgescu factor” is especially interesting from a scientific perspective, not just because a second-tier candidate managed to top the first round, but also because he built much of his campaign on TikTok - until he was banned for allegedly inciting hatred, promoting Nazism, and spreading disinformation.

• Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili said that the ruling Georgian Dream party expects to hold presidential elections by the end of 2024.