Russian forces advance faster than at any point in 2023 — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War reports the information.

“Russian forces’ recent confirmed battlefield gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka demonstrate that the war in Ukraine is not stalemated. The frontline in Donetsk Oblast is becoming increasingly fluid as Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023,” analysts noted.

According to ISW, Russian forces have taken several settlements along the C051104 highway to the northeast of Vuhledar, including Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Illinka, and possibly Romanivka. Geolocation data indicates their advancement to the eastern outskirts of Yelyzavetivka and the central part of Trudovske.

In the Velyka Novosilka area, Russian troops have advanced south of Rozdolne and to the west of Novodaryvka, putting additional pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

Russian forces have significantly increased their pace of advancement in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka sectors. Since September 1, 2024, Russian forces have captured at least 1,103 square kilometers of territory, compared to only 387 square kilometers in all of 2023.

According to ISW analysts, the Russian military's advancement in southeastern Ukraine is “largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s lines."

Analysts believe that the capture of Vuhledar has allowed Russia to strengthen its offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk region. In the Velyka Novosilka area, Russian forces are attempting to bypass Ukrainian positions from the flanks, avoiding well-fortified areas.

ISW suggests the following courses of action that the Russian command may consider in light of the recent progress of its troops:

• Encirclement of Velyka Novosilka: Russian troops are trying to envelop the settlement from the flanks to reduce the supply capabilities of Ukrainian forces.
• Offensive on Andriivka: Capturing this position would allow Russia to create conditions for the encirclement of Kurakhove and other Ukrainian strongholds.
• Advancement towards Selydove: This could level the front line and set the stage for an offensive on Pokrovsk in 2025.

The Institute for the Study of War emphasized that since the fall of 2024, Russian forces have been making gradual tactical advances in southeastern Ukraine. Russian forces have not been able to restore the operational maneuver that was observed in the early months of the full-scale Russian invasion. While the current Russian tactical advancement is happening faster than the months of positional warfare that characterized most of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, it still lags significantly behind the pace of Russian advances in March 2022.

• According to DeepState, on November 25, the Russian army carried out a landing across the Oskil River south of Novomlynsk in the Kharkiv region using boats.