Zelenskyy reveals Victory Plan to parliament. How to stop Russia from boosting ammo, artillery production. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Victory Plan

Yesterday, during one of the most challenging moments in the war with Russia, as the enemy attempted to advance along the entire front line, President Zelenskyy revealed the main elements of the Victory Plan in parliament. This plan was previously shared with key allies in the fight against the aggressor.

Zelenskyy stated that if this plan is followed, the war could end as early as next year. The tone was optimistic, maybe even overly so. The plan itself has five main points, plus three confidential annexes. The first four points focus on ending the war, while the fifth addresses post-war security. The first point is an invitation to NATO—just the invitation. Ukraine hopes to receive this before President Joe Biden’s term ends.

The second point focuses on strengthening Ukraine's defenses, with several key measures outlined. The third point is about containing Russia. Ukraine is proposing to host a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence system that would shield the country from any Russian military threat. This section includes a secret annex, shared with countries like the U.S., UK, France, Italy, and Germany.

It’s likely that this involves high-precision, long-range weapon systems as an essential part of Ukraine’s arsenal. It may also include defense systems, as all these nations manufacture air and missile defense systems.

There is also speculation that it could involve stationing NATO or U.S. military bases in Ukraine. This would offer security guarantees through the physical presence of Western military personnel. In such a case, the responsibility for Ukraine’s security would become a shared issue among these nations, which have previously spoken about their commitments to Ukraine. I’ll skip over the fourth point, which focuses on the economic aspects of the plan.

The fifth point addresses the post-war era. It suggests Ukrainian forces might replace some U.S. military units stationed in Europe, taking on a larger role in defending the Alliance. But this would only happen after the war is over.

Of course, this plan’s implementation isn’t really up to Russia, as Zelenskyy pointed out — it’s in the hands of our partners. And that’s exactly where the main challenge lies, from what I understand. There’s a level of uncertainty in how our partners will respond. Key allies have already been briefed on the plan, and now we wait for their reaction. Today, we’ve learned that Britain is specifically working on its own proposals regarding the possibility of Ukraine striking targets deep within Russian territory, all as part of the broader Victory Plan.

Society Press reported that some allies are concerned Zelenskyy’s timeline for the plan might be too short. On September 20, Zelenskyy said the plan calls for decisions to be made from October through December of this year, urging no delays. However, some partners feel these three months might be too brief to make those decisions. In any case, we know it’s crucial to align both the strategic goals and the capacities of Ukraine and its partners.

Right now, I believe this will be the key moment — an absolutely vital step for making the plan a reality. It must gain enough strength to shift the situation on the battlefield and impact the timelines Zelenskyy has outlined for how this plan will influence the course of the war.

Limiting Russia's military capabilities

This week, an interesting study was published by the British think tank, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in collaboration with Ukrainian experts. It focused on how to limit Russia's production of ammunition, its components, and artillery systems. Experts from Ukraine’s Council of Economic Security also took part in the research and investigations. The 96-page report outlines every way Russia is trying to expand its military potential and provides strategies to disrupt these efforts.

Olena Yurchenko, director of the Economic Security Council of Ukraine, discussed the key findings of the research, which areas were assessed, and what conclusions were drawn.

"In essence, this study looks at the production of Russian artillery — from the moment metal ores like iron, steel, titanium, or chromium are mined, all the way to when a self-propelled howitzer reaches the battlefield and into the hands of Russian forces. The core of this analysis is introducing a new way of understanding the production of specific weapon systems in Russia. Previously, most reports and discussions around sanctions and export controls focused on specific components, like microchips found in guided missiles or drones destroyed in Ukraine," she explained.

According to Yurchenko, the study provides a fresh perspective on Russian artillery production as a complex process, one in which Ukraine and its Western allies can identify weaknesses and exploit them.

"This research not only identifies these vulnerabilities but also demonstrates that they are not solely addressed through sanctions or tighter export controls. In some cases, it requires diplomatic efforts from Western allies or even more direct actions. It's about adopting a comprehensive approach to managing Russia’s military capacity. Despite doubts about the accuracy of Russian economic data and their tendency to mislead, we can't deny that Russia still has the capacity to maintain its frontlines and cause significant damage to Ukraine. Artillery, after all, remains a dominant force on the battlefield," Yurchenko concluded.

She also mentioned that 70% of Ukrainian soldiers' injuries are caused by Russian artillery.

"This report takes a deep dive into a key area, examining many components — from mining metal ore to producing the final product. The Economic Security Council has focused on two main vulnerabilities of the Russian Federation: access to critical raw materials like chrome, and the production tools such as CNC machines. In every aspect, Russia’s dependence on imports is clear. Even with local reserves or production capacity, they still rely on imports. And, in most cases, this reliance traces back to Western countries or their partners, who play critical roles in the supply chain. What we aim to show is that any military strength Russia has is either built or sustained thanks to the technology and logistics provided by our allies. Russia can’t do it all on its own," said the director of the Economic Security Council.

She also highlighted an example of this weak point:

"Let’s take a straightforward example. Russia has a huge stockpile of artillery systems, many made during the Soviet era. The Soviet military-industrial complex was very good at stockpiling. But to get a howitzer back in action, it needs repairs, starting with its barrel. The barrel isn’t just a simple pipe. For it to last, say for 10,000 rounds, it needs to be durable and high-quality. Over time, heat and recoil warp the barrel, affecting the accuracy of the projectile. So, the barrel needs to be well-maintained. To do that, it requires a chrome coating. Pure chrome is applied inside the barrel to extend its lifespan,” the expert explained.