Vuhledar's fall: How Russia's air dominance sealed the city's fate

According to Kovalenko, the loss of Vuhledar was inevitable under the current circumstances, although it could have been avoided. However, not everything in this situation was solely within Ukraine's control.

The decisive battle for Vuhledar didn't start on September 20, 2024, when Russian forces advanced along Route 0532 and neared the city's eastern outskirts. It began much earlier, in January 2023, with the offensive on Novomykhailivka and the formation of the northern flank, which extended through Kostiantynivka toward Route 0532.

“Nine months ago, Russian forces launched an offensive to reach 0532 and, in fact, Vuhledar. That's when the battle began,” the expert says.

Russian troops had quantitative superiority in personnel, equipment, artillery, but aviation played a key role. The dominance of tactical aviation in the airspace and the lack of effective countermeasures led to the fact that the defense lines, routes, positions, were daily flooded not only with rockets and artillery, but also with guided bombs and rocket-propelled grenades.

For nine months, Russian forces methodically ground down Ukrainian positions, inching toward their goal—Route 0532. In doing so, they lost tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of pieces of equipment. However, they held an undeniable and highly effective advantage—aviation.

When the great battle for Vuhledar began, the city was essentially wiped off the map by relentless guided bomb strikes, occurring around the clock. Vuhledar became the focal point for the use of these devastating weapons, making it impossible to hold any position within the city amid the relentless bombardment from 250, 500, and even 1,500-kilogram bombs.

"Was there a chance for Ukraine to defend Vuhledar? Yes," Kovalenko asserts. "If the Russian air force had been incapable or too afraid to enter Ukrainian airspace, or if certain warplanes, such as Su-25s, were physically unable to reach the battlefront. Had Russian aircraft been forced to take off from bases located on Russian territory outside the 300-kilometer range from Ukraine's borders, 80% of the strike aircraft used in Ukrainian airspace would simply have been unable to reach it. The ability to operate within such a radius would primarily be left to the Su-34 and Su-35, but with an incomplete combat load."

Kovalenko emphasizes, "If Russia had lost 80% of their air support, we wouldn’t be discussing the occupation of Vuhledar. Instead, we’d be talking about how Russian troops are enriching the Kalynivka quarry with their bodies, or how they got bogged down at Shyroka Balka. However, due to well-known reasons, this scenario hasn’t played out, and the unchecked dominance of Russian tactical aviation continues."