Espreso. Global
OPINION

Why on earth would Putin agree to Scholz's peace plan?

10 September, 2024 Tuesday
13:40

The Italian newspaper La Repubblica reveals the first details of the so-called peace plan being crafted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz

client/title.list_title

According to the publication, Scholz’s plan to end the war in Ukraine isn’t just about halting the conflict — it’s also a crucial political move for his own survival. After the crushing defeat of the Social Democrats in recent elections in Saxony and Thuringia, Scholz fears the collapse of his governing coalition or even the possibility of early parliamentary elections due to rising public pressure. Let's not forget about the scheduled 2025 Bundestag elections either.

If Scholz manages to become the "Chancellor of Peace," as La Repubblica suggests, it’ll likely secure his standing as a political leader. But this isn’t just about Scholz’s ambitions. The real question is what kind of peace deal would actually end Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The outlet compares this plan to a new version of the Minsk agreements, suggesting it would involve a ceasefire between the two warring sides. However, Ukraine would have to accept that some of its sovereign territory will remain under Russian control.

There’s no mention of how Western nations, who would have to endorse Scholz’s plan, would provide security guarantees for Ukraine — or how they plan to prevent the Russian-Ukrainian war from reigniting shortly after. After all, this major conflict erupted under the pretense that Ukraine wasn’t sticking to the Minsk agreements. In reality, Russia’s goal was the destruction of Ukrainian statehood or the installation of a puppet government in Kyiv, willing to bow to Moscow’s demands.

There’s another key issue that always stands out to me when we talk about any peace plans. According to La Repubblica, Scholz is pushing Ukraine to accept a peace deal at any cost. Sure, the German chancellor, especially if he gets support from other Western leaders, has plenty of ways to pressure President Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s political leadership. Without real Western support, the Ukrainian people would eventually be forced to make concessions to Russia.

But here’s the bigger question — why on earth would Putin even agree to Scholz’s peace plan? His spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, has already said there’s no chance for a peaceful solution to the situation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even though Russia’s leadership only heard about Scholz’s plan through media reports, they claim they’re open to any proposals.

Of course, that’s all just talk. In reality, as long as Putin believes his troops are advancing on Ukrainian land and can capture more of it, he won’t stop. As long as he thinks missile and drone strikes will turn Ukraine into a wasteland, pushing more Ukrainians to flee, he’ll keep going. As long as he’s convinced he can win a political, social, and demographic battle against his hated neighbor — even if Russia doesn’t control the whole country — he has no reason to call it quits.

I’ve said it many times before: the only real chance to stop the fighting between Russia and Ukraine isn’t through peace plans from Scholz or any other politician. And it isn't through accepting that parts of Ukraine's land will stay under Russian control indefinitely — territory that Russia now considers its own, like it did with Crimea, and the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, all taken by Russian forces.

The fundamental issue is that Russia has no intention of limiting Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to these regions. Putin didn’t initiate this war just for these territories. Supported by his countrymen, the Russian leader is chasing a far bigger goal — conquering all of Ukraine and expelling any opposition beyond its borders. This is his version of restoring Russia’s geopolitical standing, envisioning it in the old Soviet Union borders.

And Olaf Scholz, like Donald Trump or anyone else, can’t offer Putin any deal that would satisfy him. Only when Putin realizes his resources are dwindling — when it’s clear he won’t advance even a kilometer on Ukrainian soil, not in months but in years — only then, I emphasize, years, will we see a shift. It’s only when Putin understands that Ukrainians will survive and remain in their homeland, even under the harshest Russian assaults, that the Kremlin might entertain the idea — not of stopping, I repeat, not stopping, but pausing the military offensive on the Ukrainian front. Add to this the prospect of Ukraine gaining control over Russian territory, with the capability to target Russian military sites — if, of course, the West agrees to provide the weapons and intelligence needed to strike deep into Russian soil.

That’s when the groundwork for preliminary talks might emerge, and perhaps by the 2020s or 2030s, we’ll be looking at a real possibility of halting, or maybe even ending, Russia’s war on Ukraine. But until that point, there’s no realistic end in sight.

Scholz and every other Western leader know exactly what’s needed to make this happen: provide Ukraine with new weapons, allow Ukraine to strike targets within Russia, and supply both the arms and the coordinates. Endorse Ukraine’s military operations on Russian soil and give Ukrainians the means to survive amidst the infrastructure damage caused by Russian attacks. This means pouring more and more billions of dollars and euros into a war Russia continues to wage against Ukraine year after year. This is the only hypothetical, theoretical chance — one that could become real — when Putin finally grasps that nothing is going his way and that it’s only him facing problems, not the West, not Ukraine. But offering him new military supplies and plans will only push the Russian president to keep going, convincing him that his strategy is working — that the West is growing tired of Ukraine, and Ukrainians are wearing down from the endless war. All he has to do is wait, and soon enough, he’ll take all of Ukraine, restoring the Russian Empire within Soviet borders.

About the author: Vitaly Portnykov, journalist, Shevchenko National Prize laureate

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Saturday
12 October
20:08
94 clashes occur on Russian-Ukrainian frontline, with Russia pushing in Kurakhove direction
19:40
OPINION
On war fatigue and ending scenarios
19:15
Military expert comments on North Korean soldiers in Russia
19:02
Exclusive
Russia fails to fully benefit from capturing Vuhledar - former U.S. Army Commander in Europe
18:35
Russian army strikes civilian car with FPV drone in Kupyansk, injuring two
17:59
OPINION
NATO's perspective: Ukraine is not Germany
17:33
Ukrainian football coach awarded Golden Cross killed in action
17:02
Six days later: Crimean oil depot fire still burning after Ukrainian attack
16:33
Exclusive
Three reasons Moscow won't use nuclear weapons, according to political scientist
16:02
Russian army attacks warehouses in Ukraine's Mykolaiv region in random strikes
15:29
Over 300 chaplains from 13 religious organizations serve in Ukraine’s Armed Forces
15:05
Exclusive
Resource factor may play decisive role in battle for Toretsk - military expert
14:43
Interview
War in 19: Ukrainian combat medic Sandra on Hospitallers, her love for people, and Sudzha
14:12
Russia conducts 21 strikes in Donetsk region, killing two, wounding three people
13:40
Review
Russian army conducts assault operations in Kursk region, intensifies offensive with use of equipment in Kupyansk sector. Serhiy Zgurets’ column
13:01
OPINION
What are allies preparing for Ukraine?
12:33
Army chief Syrskyi: "Ukraine has positive dynamic in destroying enemy targets with drones'"
11:59
Russia plans to manufacture Shahed drones at captured factories in Ukraine
11:35
Russian forces attack Ukraine with Shaheds, KABs overnight
10:59
Russia loses 1,290 soldiers in one day of war in Ukraine
10:33
Ukrainian military destroys Russian fuel depot in Luhansk region
2024, Friday
11 October
21:28
Slovakia intends to expand repair base for Ukrainian military equipment
21:05
Europe won't be secure until Ukraine is in NATO - former U.S. ambassador
20:47
Updated
Ukraine to share list of journalists in Russian captivity with Vatican after Zelenskyy-Pope meeting
20:31
OPINION
What's behind word 'peace'?
20:08
Deceased journalist Roshchyna held in Russian detention center known for brutal torture
19:49
Affiliate Material
Rebuilding Ukraine: Sumy region's recovery from Russian occupation
19:30
Exclusive
Delivery of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine set to outpace F-16 timeline
19:12
Ukraine’s strikes on ammo depots poise Russia to face shell crisis - Estonian intelligence
18:55
78 clashes occur at front on Oct. 11: Ukraine's General Staff names hottest areas
18:33
Affiliate Material
Reconstruction progress in Odesa region: сompensation timeline, application process
18:10
Scholz pledges €1.4 billion in aid for Ukraine during talks with Zelenskyy
17:51
Exclusive
Russia's advance in Kupyansk sector: Ukrainian military reveals strategic objectives
17:32
Interpol-wanted Islamic State member detained in Kyiv
17:13
Russian troops advance in Toretsk, reinforce defence near Chasiv Yar - Ukrainian military
16:54
Russia damages at least 1,641 schools in Ukraine, destroys 201 more
16:36
OPINION
Is Ukraine just one step from NATO and victory?
16:15
Exclusive
Kim Jong-Un will not send troops to Ukraine due to U.S. threat — Ukrainian general
15:59
Russian troops face logistical crisis following destruction of Feodosia oil depot — Atesh guerrillas
15:41
Exclusive
Ukrainian general names timeline for delivery of French Mirage aircraft
More news