Espreso. Global
OPINION

Why doesn't Ukraine manufacture missiles?

29 July, 2024 Monday
14:56

The missile program struggles with slow production, systemic issues, and potential sabotage, all worsened by poor political and managerial efforts

client/title.list_title

We don’t produce missiles not because we don’t have the capability. A quick search reveals numerous promising developments in this area.

And there's the Thunder-2 missile system, Ukrainian equivalent of the Iskander, and the Korshun cruise missiles. Even over a year ago, someone was boasting that we had adapted the Neptune missile for strikes against ground targets.

So the problem isn't that we can't make missiles. The issue is that we do it very slowly and in insufficient quantities. This is due to a lack of systematic approach and prioritization, along with ineffective and poor management decisions that delay development and production. This whole set of issues - specifically, the lack of understanding and willingness to intervene in production processes - creates a situation where “the higher-ups don’t understand, and the lower levels can’t manage.” This is why the domestic missile program is still struggling.

All the problems hindering the development and production of our own missiles existed even before the full-scale invasion - throughout all years of independence. Ukrainian industry has deteriorated over 30 years, with much lost and forgotten. Processes, from logistical connections to internal production processes, have been disrupted. Everything needs to be rebuilt, and currently, hardly anyone is addressing these issues.

For analogy, imagine you have a car that has been in several accidents and starts malfunctioning. Similarly, the mechanisms of the Ukrainian defense industry are not functioning properly, and instead of repairing them, everyone thinks it will run on its own with just a bit of fuel. But it doesn't work that way.

At the same time, those who ordered the development of the missile program believe that solving the problem requires only allocating funds and issuing a government contract. They see this as the end of their role. However, even if money is found for the missile program, just like the situation with the Antonov factory when Zelenskyy promised to purchase its planes, it doesn’t guarantee the rapid production of these missiles. Moreover, many of the problems currently facing defense sector enterprises cannot be resolved by them alone.

For example, let’s consider the development process. Any industrial product is like a complex assembly made from various parts and components. Some of these components can be imported, but there are also components that are very difficult to import because the countries that own these technologies may impose export restrictions.

In the United States, the export of missile technologies is regulated by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). This regime restricts access to these technologies to all but key partner countries. Even though Ukraine is currently a partner of the United States, this does not mean that we automatically receive permission to access these technologies. Such permission must be obtained separately, and this is a political issue in itself.

In other words, systematic work is needed in this area, similar to the efforts made to acquire ready-made weapons from the West. While some efforts are underway, they are not systematic, and often the initiative comes from companies rather than from the top. Politicians then join in to gain publicity, sign a memorandum, and that’s where their involvement ends. There is no political effort to expedite the acquisition of these technologies at all.

Additionally, manufacturers may face issues with staffing. This problem is often difficult to resolve due to the degradation of the sector, which has left few specialists in the field. Therefore, political and managerial decisions are needed to find and train the necessary personnel. Moreover, it’s important to revitalize the profession, seek experts from other industries, or even attract foreign specialists to address our weak points. This work is also not being carried out.

It is also important to note that problems exist not only at the development stage but also in production. Even when there is a ready-developed weapon, we still cannot produce it in large quantities. This is explained by the degradation of production facilities, loss of skilled personnel, and the inability to organize production effectively.

What can be said when these people are currently unable to even establish mass production of simpler rocket artillery shells or even ammunition—simpler products than advanced missiles? If we can't solve the problem with shells, it's unlikely we will see progress in the missile program, as the necessary conditions for this have not been created.

I even suspect sabotage in weapons manufacturing, as Russians could recruit defense sector employees just like they recruit spotters for missile strikes. Participants in the process might deliberately slow down production, telling our officials—who may not fully understand—that it’s impossible to produce more or faster.

Therefore, I have doubts that these problems will be resolved. If there were clear signs of a willingness from management to address these issues, I might have a more optimistic outlook. Right now, I don’t see that.

Source

About the author: Pavlo Vernivskyi, economist, expert at the Oleksandr Pol Institute

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Tuesday
5 November
21:20
Exclusive
Voice of America correspondent: U.S. election sees unusually high voter turnout
21:10
G7, allies are working on joint response to DPRK troop deployment in Russia
20:56
Exclusive
Ukraine to receive Abrams tanks from Australia within months - Defense Express
20:40
Poland to spend $750 million to increase ammunition production
20:25
Russia stockpiling P-800 Oniks missiles - military expert
20:11
Russian troops execute six Ukrainian prisoners of war
19:56
Fourth group of Ukrainian operators completes Patriot air defense training in Germany
19:37
Exclusive
Europe 70% prepared for Trump’s potential return to power - Ukrainian analyst
19:20
75 combat engagements take place along frontline, Kurakhove sector is hottest spot — General Staff
18:58
Exclusive
Dnipropetrovsk region in critical condition, very little information about fortifications - local deputy
18:39
First clashes occur between Ukrainian army and DPRK military in Kursk region, Ukrainian Defense Minister confirms
18:21
Ukrainian forces destroy 102 Russian tank battalions since beginning of 2024
18:00
Russia trains DPRK military in Kursk region to use various drones
17:42
Over 500 Ukrainians from 30 countries apply to join Ukrainian Legion in Poland
17:20
Polish politician accuses Zelenskyy of trying to drag his state into war, Ukraine responds
17:10
Updated
Google Maps releases satellite images of Ukrainian military systems, claims they are outdated
16:57
OPINION
Russian propaganda against Ukrainians intensifies: what are the underlying reasons
16:48
Russia shells village in Kharkiv region, killing two people
16:36
Russia focuses on Donetsk region: UK intelligence analyzes frontline developments
16:15
Russian troops turn to electric scooters for mobility in Kharkiv region
15:50
Exclusive
Russian troops poised to launch major missile strikes as frost sets in — aviation expert
15:36
Forecasted U.S. vote outcomes: what are the likely Senate, House, and presidential results
15:17
Updated
Russia attacks Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia, killing 6 people, injuring 23
15:14
Review
North Korean troops to lead assault waves for Russia in Kursk region. Serhiy Zgurets' column
14:57
Russia allegedly conspired to place incendiary devices on aircraft heading to U.S.
14:32
North Korea launches missiles into East Sea hours before U.S. presidential election
14:15
EU probes scheme to re-label Russian oil in Turkey for European markets
13:21
Review
In life and death: The heroic story of Valkyrie and Berserk, fallen heroes of the Ukrainian frontline
12:56
Western officials urge Europe to brace for U.S. election outcomes, resist compromise with Russia
12:39
Exclusive
Ukrainian forces can hamper Russian advance near Kurakhove - military expert Zgurets
12:19
OPINION
U.S. elections: candidates ready to deny defeat
11:58
"Most active threat": U.S. warns of Russia's possible interference in election process
11:32
Pro-Trump blogger admits to posting fake claims about U.S. elections at Russia’s request
11:16
Exclusive
Russian forces prioritize Kupyansk sector offensive, seeking foothold in Kruhliakivka
10:56
Russia launches Soyuz-2.1 rocket with two Iranian satellites
10:37
Russia loses 1,260 soldiers, 29 artillery systems, 15 tanks in one day of war in Ukraine
10:16
Russia seizes Ukraine's Stepanivka, Donetsk region, advances near 4 more settlements — DeepState
09:56
Australia to donate 14 military boats to Ukraine
09:38
NATO may consider intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine next week - Polish FM
2024, Monday
4 November
21:40
Over 80 million tons of cargo exported through Ukrainian sea corridor
More news