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OPINION

When will Russian army be pushed out of Kharkiv region?

1 July, 2024 Monday
17:01

Lately, the question of when the invading Russian troops will be driven out of the Kharkiv region has started to sound more and more often

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And I will answer this question in the following, shocking for many, way: "Why?"

But before triggering, it's worth paying attention to the following...

Before the formation of the North military group, there were military groups near the border with Ukraine numbering just over 35,000 personnel: the Belgorod group had slightly more than 15,000 personnel, and the Bryansk and Kursk groups had about 10,000 each. However, after their unification into the North group, this number grew to 50,000. On the eve of the offensive in the Kharkiv region on May 10, their total number was 53,000, with the largest group remaining the former Belgorod group, which had about 40,000 personnel.

Currently, the North group has about 60,000 personnel, and the former Belgorod group has more than 45,000 personnel. To strengthen the North group and continue the fighting in the Kharkiv region, the command of the invading Russian forces weakened other areas by transferring units to the Belgorod region from:

  • The Kramatorsk direction: the 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade (operated in the Chasiv Yar area, along the Ivanivske-Klishchiivka-Andriivka line).
  • The Kurakhove direction: the "legendary" 155th Separate Marine Brigade, which, after two failed offensives on Vuhledar, had no marines left who had ever seen the sea.
  • The Dnipro group: the 810th Separate Marine Brigade, which had been stuck at Krynky for a year, and the 61st Separate Marine Brigade, which recently drowned its equipment near Nestryha.

The Kharkiv region is draining the resources of the Russian army and tying them down in this location. By opening two new front lines, Russia cannot abandon them due to the stubborn obstinacy of its clumsy generals, but it also cannot achieve success there. In fact, the Kharkiv region is consuming 25,000 extra personnel, which need to be regularly replenished and reinforced.

"Therefore, I do not rule out that by the end of the summer, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will reach the Hlyboke-Lukiantsi line with full control of these villages. They will drive the Russians out of Vovchansk, pushing them 1-2 km away from the city, and possibly conduct raids in the Hatyshche-Ohirtseve area. However, they will maintain a Russian presence sufficient to prevent a reduction in the Russian grouping in the Belgorod region."

If the Russians are completely driven out of the Kharkiv region, they will leave a standard set of 15-20 thousand personnel in Belgorod and concentrate the freed resources in one or several other directions. Do we need that?

The Russian command, with its performance in the Kharkiv region, not only failed to achieve tactical and especially operational-tactical successes, wasting thousands of personnel and continuing to do so, but also trapped itself in a situation from which it is almost impossible to escape. If they simply withdraw their troops from these two sections of the front, the question arises: "What was the point of all this, and at such a cost?"

As a result, Colonel General Alexander Lapin will very quickly find himself on trial, not in The Hague, but in the 235th Garrison Military Court in Moscow for suddenly revealed corruption. Meanwhile, as the Russians are ground down in the Kharkiv region, uncomfortable questions are kept on hold for a convenient occasion.

Stalemate.

Source

About the author: Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political observer with the Information Resistance group.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

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