Three months of fighting with North Korean forces in Kursk: What to expect next

Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, with the Information Resistance group, shared his analysis of what three months of fighting with North Korean forces in the Kursk area have revealed and what can be expected moving forward.

According to South Korean media citing the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) of South Korea, Kim Jong Un has approved the deployment of reinforcements to Russian forces already stationed in the country. This move was expected, and the second wave of North Korean troops in 2025 may not be the last.

After three months of fighting alongside Russian troops, North Korean forces have suffered over 5,000 casualties in the Kursk region. However, these heavy losses have not led to significant gains for Russia — the large area controlled by Ukraine's Defense Forces inside Russian territory remains largely unchanged.

As of November 1, 2024, Ukrainian forces controlled or contested 970 km² of the Kursk region. Today, that number has decreased to 630 km². The average daily losses among North Korean troops have been around 60 soldiers per day. Notably, these figures refer solely to North Korean casualties, while overall Russian forces in Kursk have suffered even greater losses.

What the three months of fighting show?

Despite the significant losses, North Korean troops have demonstrated considerable resilience. Out of an estimated 11,000 to 12,000 North Korean soldiers sent to Russia, over 40% have been killed or wounded. By Russian military standards, this number does not constitute a full army corps, but no Russian unit has ever lost 40% of its personnel so quickly, effectively rendering it combat-ineffective.

"Does this mean North Korean soldiers are weak? Absolutely not. Their high casualties result mainly from the Russian command’s disregard for their lives — an attitude even worse than that shown toward Wagner mercenaries," the observer believes. Unlike Russian troops, North Koreans were sent into battle without heavy equipment, armored vehicles, or even basic transport. The Kremlin deployed them in human-wave assaults, providing only limited artillery support and minimal coordination with Russian forces, the observer added.

Despite these challenges, North Korean soldiers have proven to be disciplined and determined. They rarely surrender — only two prisoners have been captured out of 5,000 casualties. Reports indicate that wounded North Korean soldiers often take their own lives rather than be captured. Additionally, they operate with remarkable cohesion at the platoon and company level, even with poor communication and limited support. Their fire discipline is exceptional, with extensive training in marksmanship making them highly effective in infantry combat.

One of the most notable aspects of their adaptation has been their response to FPV drones — a previously unfamiliar threat. Instead of panicking, North Korean troops have developed tactics to shoot them down, sometimes using one soldier as bait while others fire at the drone with well-aimed bursts.

Before their deployment, little was known about the true combat capabilities of North Korean forces. Many dismissed them as ineffective, but the reality has proven otherwise. These troops exhibit high morale, discipline, and strong combat skills. If provided with proper equipment, they could become an even more formidable force than average Russian units or mercenaries from other countries, Kovalenko says.

A greater threat would emerge if North Korean units were deployed directly to Ukraine. Given Russia’s ongoing manpower shortages, this scenario is increasingly likely. If Russian forces manage to regain control of the Kursk region, North Korean troops may soon appear on the front lines in Ukraine, significantly escalating the conflict, the observer concludes.