Will Ukraine compromise? Ukrainians' opinions on negotiations with Russia

Possibility and conditions of negotiations

Ukraine continues to endure years of conflict, shaping domestic discourse. According to ZN.UA, 44% of Ukrainians in non-frontline areas favor initiating peace talks with Russia, while 35% oppose, and 21% are undecided.

Ukraine's official stance on negotiations has evolved from advocating for its 1991 borders to considering more recent diplomatic developments. Ahead of the Peace Summit in Switzerland, Putin's perceived ultimatum received significant attention among Ukrainians, with 59% aware of his conditions. However, a resounding 83% oppose meeting Putin's demands to withdraw troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Similarly, 84% reject ceding these regions, and 77% oppose lifting Western sanctions on Russia.

Views on Ukraine's neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear status are divided: 58% are against it, while 22% support it, with notable regional variations. Support for neutrality is higher in the south (39%), particularly among older demographics (60+).

Putin's stance is seen by many as signaling readiness for prolonged war, potentially dragging Ukraine and the world into a prolonged crisis. Despite mentions of peace talks, skepticism remains widespread, with 76% believing Putin will only negotiate on his terms. Regional attitudes vary, with the southern region showing more openness to negotiations and neutrality.

Factors influencing negotiations

65% of Ukrainians believe prolonged war and sanctions increase Russia’s dependence on China, potentially pushing Putin to negotiate. This view was consistent across regions, except the south, where 59% believed economic costs would force negotiations. Other factors, like the desire of Putin's entourage to return to Western markets or fear of The Hague, were rated lower.

Format of official talks

Given Putin’s continued power, President Zelenskyy insists on mediators for any negotiations. ZN.UA asked if Zelenskyy’s decree against talks with Putin should be canceled. 37% opposed canceling the decree, correlating with those against negotiating with Putin.

Minimum conditions for peace

51% of Ukrainians insist on achieving peace with liberation within the 1991 borders as a minimum requirement. 26% would accept halting the war along the early 2022 demarcation line, and 9% would consider freezing the frontline at the time of agreement. When considering concessions, a significant majority (61.1%) are unwilling to yield any territories or compromise on Ukraine's pro-Western orientation. This reflects a paradox where while 44% support negotiations, 61.1% are adamant about not conceding anything. Only 14% would consider abandoning Ukraine's pro-Western alignment, and 8% would contemplate territorial concessions.