Meeting with Trump. Putin wants to show he is being talked to

Also, the meeting itself is important to Putin. And I will repeat what I said before: Putin is not interested in productive negotiations right now. At the first stage, it is important for him to: 

a) meet with Trump and show that he is being talked to; 

b) try to disrupt the first round of negotiations using Ukraine. He will try to do this.

As for the negotiations themselves, or rather, what can make Putin stop the war? I identify four factors. 

1. For some reason, Ukraine officially agrees to Russia's demand and follows a scenario similar to Czechoslovakia in 1938, where the occupied territories are considered part of Russia. I find this scenario unrealistic, at least in the medium term.

2. The fear of a collapse in oil revenues (either by starting to play the oil price downward or striking at the so-called "shadow" fleet). This cannot be done in a short period, but the mere desire to do it already poses a threat to Russia.

3. US-China agreements. Right now, it seems like science fiction, but we must remember that everything Trump is doing now is against China. It's all part of the strategy for future negotiation leverage with China.

4. Partial lifting of sanctions on Russia. This point could serve as a carrot, in addition to the second or third points.

These four points are fundamental for productive negotiations. However, in all these scenarios, we unfortunately have limited agency. Therefore, two things are crucial for us: the situation on the front lines and a consolidated position in the US.

In simpler terms, we need to repeat what was done in March 2024, when, through the joint efforts of various influential groups, the situation with arms supplies blocked by Trump supporters was turned around. In my opinion, this is realistic.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.