Trump’s peace plans: what do we know?

1. Recently, Trump's team proposed two main concepts. The first is Pompeo’s aggressive plan, and the second is the quasi-Finnish scenario from the America First Policy Institute (AFPI), which serves as a haven for former Trump administration officials. These are two directly opposing ideas, both put forward by people within Trump’s circle.

2. Before analyzing these approaches, it’s essential to understand that Trump follows a "strategic ambiguity" negotiation concept. This approach involves keeping the widest possible range of negotiation options open at every stage. Many see this as madness (he certainly doesn’t lack for audacity). However, it is precisely this wide range of potential solutions that keeps his counterparts on edge for as long as possible.

3. What does Putin need from negotiations? There are three key points: NATO, the front line, and partial sanctions relief. Everything else is optional, though he will, of course, raise numerous other demands.

“But that’s not the main point: he wants to make Ukraine the last item on the negotiation agenda, putting issues like Iran, North Korea, China, and uranium from Niger ahead of it. Our diplomacy must make every effort to bring Ukraine back to the top of the negotiations. This is one of the most critical challenges we face.”

4. The Pompeo plan is to continue arming Ukraine if Putin keeps making new demands. That’s also why, incidentally, the Russian Foreign Ministry highlighted this issue as a distinct red line this week.

5. The AFPI plan includes the following points:

• Ukraine has no chance of joining NATO.
• Putin should receive guarantees of partial sanctions relief.
• A demilitarized zone is to be created (the specifics of its location and nature are not clarified).
• Additional taxes on the sale of Russian energy resources should fund the reconstruction of Ukraine (this and the previous two points are direct quotes from an article in Foreign Affairs by Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan).
• Ukraine is to build a long-term security architecture system (its specifics are not detailed), which will help preserve peace for the long term (currently, this has turned into a mythical scenario of American and British troops patrolling a 1000-kilometer buffer zone).

6. We can assume the following basic scenario. Trump will initially follow the AFPI plan, setting certain ultimatum demands for Ukraine (this week, a representative of his team rather crudely referred to one of these lines as the "1991 borders"). At the same time, corresponding red lines will be presented to Putin, with a warning that otherwise the Pompeo plan will be activated.

7. This whole situation is very unpleasant for us, but negotiating better conditions is only possible with the consolidation of elites (from different political views) and the people. Unfortunately, for us, the story of Duda and Tusk, who agreed on joint actions regarding communication with the US despite clear internal political losses for both, still seems like a fantasy.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.