There are no real negotiations to end Ukraine war, and unlikely to be any

At this moment, it is evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a clear plan for a peaceful resolution. Instead, there is a semi-official demand for Ukraine’s presidential elections, though its objectives are not publicly explained. However, it is clear that implementing this demand would require at least a truce, if not a lasting peace — at least from the American perspective. Only after the elections could negotiations with Ukraine’s new president on ending the war take place.

Thus, the three-step plan that NBC News unveiled earlier in the week is actually emerging:

• a ceasefire;
• presidential elections;
• a peace agreement.

At first glance, it looks like a plan, but in reality, it is just a set of actions that look almost impossible to implement.

Problems arise at the very first point. In order to declare a truce, it is necessary to determine the line on which the armies will stop, and no one has any idea how that should look like. But the main question is: why would Putin agree? In his view, he is winning the war and simply does not need a truce. For him to agree to stop, something significant must be offered in return — such as the "new security architecture" that was demanded with the invasion’s start in 2021-2022.

Trump may theoretically be open to discussing Ukraine's territory, but the idea of Americans making concessions regarding Europe — which they have been closely tied to for 80 years — just to hold elections in Ukraine is a scenario that belongs in the realm of fantasy.

Moreover, Putin and his entourage have repeatedly stated that they will not agree to a ceasefire for the sake of a ceasefire. They want a full-fledged agreement that will include all the issues that led to the invasion. This means the same “new security architecture” and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories that Russia has written into its constitution.

If this is indeed the plan, it is already clear that it will fail. And there is no doubt that the Americans themselves also realize this. Therefore, everything we see now may be part of a simple scapegoating strategy. There are three candidates for this role: Putin, Zelenskyy, and the EU.

All these ultimatums on social media, the Ukrainian president's speeches to the U.S. vice president in Munich and other international venues may be an attempt to create an informational foundation for future explanations of why the plan did not work.

From all this, one general conclusion can be drawn: there are no real negotiations and most likely will not be. There is no common ground between Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the EU from which to start serious negotiations. The Americans realize this and are now looking for someone to blame for the inevitable failure.

Therefore, as unfortunate as it may sound, one of Ukraine's key geopolitical tasks in the near future is to ensure that it is not blamed for this failure.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian MP

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.