Ukraine’s critical dependence on U.S.: military expert on key areas at risk if U.S. stops aid to Ukraine

He shared the information on Espreso TV.

"Statements from American politicians cause disappointment and surprise, as they echo Russian narratives. Indeed, the assistance from the U.S. [to Ukraine] is substantial. Currently, several financial commitments are in place for American companies to manufacture new weapons. These contracts were signed in 2023 and ensure the production of weapons that are expected to be supplied in 2025 and even 2026," noted Zgurets.

According to the military expert, there are also packages approved under President Biden, which provide for the supply of weapons. Not all of them have been fulfilled, and not all have been delivered. Under an optimistic scenario, the delivery of new weapons should occur in 2025.

"However, the situation is currently quite uncertain, as it remains unclear whether the U.S. will exert pressure on Ukraine by limiting contracts. There is currently a critical dependence on the U.S., particularly for Patriot missiles, missiles for other types of weaponry, Starlink systems, and intelligence information. These three factors are extremely important, particularly the Patriot missiles, and what ensures stable command on the battlefield.

What can Europe compensate if the Americans begin to slow down? If the possibility of purchasing American weapons through European countries with European funds remains, I believe there will be no issues with missiles. The Starlink issue is a commercial matter for the American side, for Musk, because Ukraine uses over 10,000 Starlink terminals. These are significant payments made to Musk, and I'm not sure Musk will decide to limit Starlink's usage. Regarding intelligence information, it’s more of a political aspect, as there have been new appointments in the CIA, and they do not necessarily have pro-Ukrainian approaches. Therefore, I think risks may arise, which could be partially compensated by European countries. However, we understand that the intelligence potential of European countries is smaller than that of the U.S.," Zgurets explained.

The military expert noted that while solutions need to be found, Europe is starting to wake up.

"I believe that Europe is set to quickly restructure its defense industry, form certain program projects that will assist Ukraine, and find answers to the risks of reduced American involvement in ensuring Europe's security," Zgurets concluded.

• U.S. and Russian representatives reportedly held secret unofficial talks in Switzerland regarding the war against Ukraine.
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that a possible meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin would largely depend on whether any progress could be made in ending the war in Ukraine.