Espreso. Global

Russia will escalate attacks ahead of U.S. aid to Ukraine, warns ISW

21 April, 2024 Sunday
11:45

Russian forces are expected to intensify their offensive and missile strikes on Ukraine in the coming weeks, taking advantage of the time gap before new U.S. aid arrives

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This is according to a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The ISW report highlights that the approval of the aid bill by the US Senate and its signing by President Joe Biden, along with the logistical challenges of delivering American assistance to the Ukrainian front line, will likely delay the impact of the aid on the situation for several weeks.

Analysts anticipate further deterioration of the situation on the front lines during this period, particularly if Russian forces escalate their attacks to exploit the time window before the arrival of new US aid.

Meanwhile, the Institute acknowledges that Ukrainian forces may face additional setbacks in the upcoming weeks as they await security assistance from the US to stabilize the front lines. However, they are expected to be able to counter the current Russian offensive if renewed US aid arrives promptly.

"The threat of an operationally significant Russian advance in the coming weeks remains, although the Ukrainian command may have more latitude to take short-term risks with dwindling supplies to prevent such an advance once it knows that more materiel will be arriving soon," experts added.

Analysts predict that the occupiers will ramp up their offensive operations, including missile and drone strikes in the next few weeks, taking advantage of Ukrainian logistical challenges.

Russian forces continue, and in some areas, escalate offensive actions, capitalizing on unusually dry spring conditions and ongoing Ukrainian material shortages until Western security assistance arrives.

Despite tactical successes over the past six months, experts doubt Russian troops can achieve a breakthrough to dismantle the front line in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, the invaders could still gain operationally significant ground, targeting areas where Ukrainian defenses seem weak, especially west of Avdiivka, or where Russian forces can reach key objectives, such as near Chasiv Yar.

The Institute predicts that by June 2024, Ukraine's operational readiness will improve, despite delays in American security assistance. Russian military planners might reconsider their large-scale offensive operation slated for June, but it could proceed as planned.

  • On April 20, the US House of Representatives held a historic vote authorizing $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
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