Russia changes tactics, launches offensive on Vuhledar from east and west: Serhiy Zgurets' column

Russia’s airstrike statistics in Ukraine

On the night of September 30, Russia launched another attack on Kyiv, using both Shahed drones and missiles. The air raid alert in the capital lasted over five hours. Reports confirm that air defense forces successfully destroyed all drones threatening the city.

September’s record of Russian attacks shows a nearly daily barrage on Ukraine using Shahed drones and various missile types—cruise, ballistic, and aeroballistic. In total, Russia launched 1,339 drones last month, with 1,110 shot down, amounting to about 85% neutralization.

Russia fired 20 cruise missiles, of which 17 were intercepted, showing a high success rate. However, with Kh-22, Kinzhal, and Iskander cruise missiles, the numbers are less promising, pointing to the need for stronger air defense coverage.

Additionally, over 3,000 guided aerial bombs (KABs) were deployed last month. These bombs now pose a significant threat, as countermeasures remain limited. Anti-aircraft missile systems continue striking both front-line positions and civilian areas. To counter this, long-range weapons are essential—striking the airfields housing these aircraft and targeting bases and arsenals, something our long-range drones have already proven effective at.

Results of Zelenskyy's visit to the U.S.

Zelenskyy's trip to the U.S., where he introduced the Victory Plan, had a significant military focus. One of the main elements involved was securing permission to use long-range weapons and increasing arms supplies during the active period of October to December — something Ukraine's military and political leadership anticipated.

However, Biden declined Zelenskyy's primary request to allow strikes on Russian territory with long-range missiles. This was despite pressure from Kyiv, European allies, and some members of Congress. Biden remains cautious, concerned that such a move could escalate the conflict with Russia. That said, this may not be the final word on the matter.

There’s hope that strikes could be carried out using French or British missiles instead. This might be a key topic at the upcoming meeting in Ramstein, Germany, where leaders of Ukraine's defense contact groups are set to gather in October.

Biden did pledge nearly $8 billion in aid to Ukraine, but weaponry is only effective when it's delivered in sufficient quantities and reaches the front lines in time — areas where these supplies are desperately needed.

In light of this, several foreign media outlets have begun analyzing the outcomes of Zelenskyy's visit. One notable piece, published by The Economist, suggests Ukraine is struggling and requires an urgent shift in strategy — this is the main point of the article. Analysts argue that Ukraine, along with its partners, needs to reassess the goals of the war. Despite Kyiv's plan to completely oust Russia, including reclaiming Crimea, Ukraine currently lacks the manpower and weapons necessary for such a task. As a result, some recalibration of objectives is necessary.

Ukraine's partners must supply it with sufficient arms to prevent Russia from continuing to pursue its political aims through force. The goal should also be Ukraine's entry into NATO, which would secure its future, though not all Ukrainian territories might qualify to join the Alliance at that point.

These difficult but necessary discussions are beginning to emerge and will undoubtedly influence future negotiations between Ukraine and its strategic partners. The direction of these talks will impact not only the volume of weapons supplied but also the strategic alignment of Ukraine and its allies in determining how to address the Russian aggression most effectively.

Lyman direction

The battlefield is where everything is decided now, with Ukrainian defenders holding the line. This time, let’s start from the Lyman direction, not Pokrovsk or Vuhledar. On September 30, Ukraine's General Staff reported surprisingly fewer clashes than usual — just 80 combat engagements, compared to the typical 150-200 daily clashes. Of those 80, 14 happened in the Lyman direction, which, by the way, is more than in Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove.

Maksym, head of the communications unit of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade stationed in Lyman, says Russian forces are ramping up attacks with guided bombs and rocket artillery, targeting Lyman and nearby cities. Air raid sirens go off 10-15 times daily, if not more. For now, though, there’s a bit of a lull in Russian assaults — mostly Russian infantry attacks, and just one mechanized offensive last week. No major changes are affecting supplies to our soldiers in this part of the front.

According to Maksym, Russian troops are constantly probing for weak spots in Ukraine's defenses. Their tactics don’t stop, but Ukrainian defenders are using FPV drones to counter them. The key here is timely reconnaissance to spot the enemy early and respond immediately, sometimes even at night. That’s when our Baba Yaga drones, which Russian forces fear, come into play alongside FPV drones and bomb drops. Artillery is mostly used when there's a mass offensive. But if there’s a small group of, say, five enemy troops, an FPV drone is more efficient — it can take out two or three soldiers. So, whether it’s artillery or FPV drones, we adapt depending on the situation.

Maksym also mentioned that Russian recon drones are almost always overhead, so the priority is spotting them quickly and neutralizing the threat before they harm Ukrainian troops. As for Ukraine's countermeasures, no need to reveal all our tactics — let the Russians find out the hard way.

Vuhledar situation

Following a soldier’s account from the Lyman region, I want to provide some updates about Vuhledar, as things are getting worse. For two years, the 72nd Brigade held the line here, defending a hill. Vuhledar itself is a town with high-rise industrial buildings. But lately, Russia’s changed tactics, launching assaults from both the east and west, trying to surround and capture Vuhledar.

Looking at the map, we can see movement from Vodiane towards Bohoiavlenka, a crucial route for supplying the Ukrainian unit. Soldiers on the ground have been posting about how tough the situation is. The supply route, a dirt road, is now within about 1 km of Russian positions, making it an easy target. Small arms, mortars, and FPV drones are being used heavily here, making evacuations and resupply for the 72nd Brigade incredibly difficult.

Experts are starting to suggest that it might be time to pull t he Ukrainian brigade out of this area. But we know the brigade has been adamant about holding the line, despite everything. That was a couple of days ago, though, and things could have changed since then. We’ll wait for updates from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces regarding this front.

On September 30, the General Staff confirmed that fighting continues around Vuhledar. But to be clear, this is probably the hardest fight the 72nd Brigade has faced throughout the entire defense of Vuhledar.

I believe it’s time to draw some conclusions and evaluations about how this is unfolding. It’s not just about changing brigade commanders – we need a comprehensive approach. One issue we consistently face is that Russia uses flanking tactics across many fronts, which ends up pushing Ukrainian units back.

These flanking maneuvers are a weak point for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. We need solutions that include both command decisions – likely above the brigade level – and resources to prevent Russian troops from executing these moves. The situation is critical. We’ll see what happens next in Vuhledar and what the military leadership decides to do about it.