NATO membership in exchange for territories: consensus growing in the West

Of course, legally, Ukraine will not give up its territories, so the strategy may involve "turning a blind eye." While on paper there may be no formal recognition of the occupation, in practice, certain concessions or de facto arrangements might have to be made.

The Financial Times reported that Biden may agree to change the status of Ukraine's application for NATO membership before he leaves office in January 2025.

And Mark Rutte, the new NATO Secretary General, made an optimistic statement about NATO's commitment to do its part in fulfilling its obligations to Ukraine.

There is nothing sensational about this formula for ending the war. Back in January 2023, the late Kissinger said that Ukraine's membership in NATO would be an appropriate outcome.

In addition, in 2023, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen proposed that Ukraine join the alliance, but without the territories occupied by Russia.

Moreover, Western public opinion has been subtly framing the position. This includes a statement made by Stian Jenssen, NATO secretary general's chief of staff, in August 2023, suggesting that Kyiv could potentially join the Alliance in exchange for ceding part of its territories

This complex equation still has many unknowns. The first is whether it will be possible to persuade Russia to accept this reality, as the Kremlin started the war under the pretext of preventing NATO expansion. However, 2024 is not 2022, and many geopolitical circumstances have changed, including Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

The second issue is how inevitable NATO's scenario of ensuring Ukraine's membership has become. All reasonable analysts and experts would agree that, apart from NATO's collective umbrella, there is no other tool to safeguard Ukraine from a new Russian attack, which would take into account the mistakes of the 2022 invasion. This question still lacks a clear and confident answer.

The third issue is the consensus within NATO regarding Ukraine's membership. There are countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Germany that have previously expressed reservations. However, in the context of discussions about Ukraine joining NATO as compensation for territorial losses, the possibility of ending the war in the region could become an attractive factor for some of these countries.

The fourth issue is how the Ukrainian people will perceive this. It is clear that a referendum will be held, as this is an extremely convenient way to eliminate political speculation by opponents of the current government or emerging politicians who may try to undermine Zelenskyy's ratings with messages about territorial losses.

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About the author. Oleh Posternak, political strategist, political consultant, member of the Ukrainian Association of Professional Political Consultants

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.