Kadyrov's paranoia is growing

As of 2024, the population of Chechnya is approximately 1.55 million people. More than half of this population consists of women, and about one-third are children under 18, along with seniors. Consequently, the total adult male population is estimated to be around 400,000 to 450,000.

Could Kadyrov, who has historically been cautious about sending Chechens to the frontlines, really send every fifth or sixth man to their death, especially not for financial gain but as volunteers? It’s possible, but only if he genuinely believes that the war will end soon. However, I have my doubts about whether he truly thinks that.

Theoretically, Kadyrov could recruit men from other regions. However, it’s hard to envision that he could do this quietly enough for it to go unnoticed. For context, 84,000 is the recruitment rate for the Russian army over a three-month period across the entire country.

What other motivations could drive Kadyrov to organize such a large force, especially considering that the Russian group in Kursk numbers around 50,000? Perhaps the only motivation would be fear that the Kremlin could turn against him at any moment. However, I find that hard to believe as well.

Indeed, by engaging in a blood vengeance game against Senator Suleiman Kerimov (concerning control over Russia's largest marketplace, Wildberries) Kadyrov has effectively set Putin up, which will definitely provoke a response.  Putin personally promised control of Wildberries to Kerimov. By involving himself in this matter, Kadyrov has essentially called into question Putin's decisions. However, any repercussions will not be immediate; in line with Putin's typical behavior, they will come with a delay. This does not necessarily imply that Kadyrov will face dismissal or any overt consequences. A classic example of this kind of political retribution can be seen in the conflict between Sechin of Rosneft and Ulyukayev, the former Minister of Economic Development. While Sechin managed to have Ulyukayev imprisoned, he ultimately lost significant influence beyond Rosneft.

In this context, reports have emerged about raids in Chechnya and even the targeted killings of individuals deemed “disloyal.” However, given that Chechnya already operates like a concentration camp, these developments align with several hypotheses:

1. Kadyrov may be imitating activity out of fear of retribution from Putin. In the wartime logic of loyalty, the only demonstration of fidelity might be sending his people to their deaths. However, this would likely involve sending far fewer than 84,000 Chechens to the frontlines.
2. Kadyrov's paranoia appears to be escalating, particularly since he has initiated some form of power transition.

The conclusion is simple: at least for now, we shouldn't worry about this.

Source.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.