How will F-16s change war's course?

There is information in open sources and we will try to compare it with the characteristics of Russian equipment.

This is a list of the main strike aircraft types that Russia (a proscribed terrorist state) uses on the battlefield against Ukraine:

1. Su-35C:

• maximum speed: 2,400 km/h;
• combat radius: 1,600 km;
• practical ceiling: 20,000 м;
• radar range: up to 400 km;
• range of air-to-air missiles: up to 300 km (R-37M).

2. Su-34:

• maximum speed: 1,900 km/h;
• combat radius: 1,100 km;
• practical ceiling: 17,000 м;
• range of guided missiles: up to 250 km.

3. Su-30SM:

• maximum speed: 2,120 km/h;
• combat radius: 1,500 km;
• practical ceiling: 17,300 м;
• radar target detection range: up to 200 km.

4. MiG-31:

• maximum speed: 3,000 km/h;
• combat radius: 720 km;
• practical ceiling: 20,600 м;
• radar target detection range: up to 320 km;
• missile range: up to 280 km (R-37).

5. Tu-22M3:

• maximum speed: 2,300 km/h;
• range: 7,000 km;
• practical ceiling: 14,000 м;
• missile range: up to 600 km (Kh-22).

6. MiG-29:

• maximum speed: 2,400 km/h;
• combat radius: 700-900 km;
• practical ceiling: 18,000 м;
• range of air-to-air missiles: up to 100 km (R-77).

7. Su-27:

• maximum speed: 2,500 km/h;
• combat radius: 1,500 km;
• practical ceiling: 18,000 м
• radar target detection range: up to 240 km;
• range of air-to-air missiles: up to 110 km (R-27ER).

***

What does Ukraine oppose?

1. MiG-29:

• maximum speed: about 2,400 km/h;
• combat radius: 700-900 km;
• practical ceiling: 18,000 м;
• armament: air-to-air missiles R-73 (range up to 40 km), R-27 (up to 130 km);
• can carry some types of air-to-ground missiles and bombs.

2. Su-27:

• maximum speed: 2,500 km/h;
• combat radius: about 1,500 km;
• practical ceiling: 18,000 м;
• armament: air-to-air missiles R-73, R-27 (range up to 130 km);
• can carry various air-to-ground missiles and bombs.

3. Su-25:

• maximum speed: 950 km/h;
• combat radius: about 750 km;
• practical ceiling: 7,000 м;
• armament: various unguided missiles, bombs, possibly short-range guided missiles.

4. Su-24:

• maximum speed: 1,700 km/h;
• combat radius: up to 1,050 km;
• practical ceiling: 11,000 м;
• armament: various bombs and missiles, including air-to-ground guided missiles with a range of up to 200 km.

5. The F-16 Fighting Falcon is a multi-purpose fighter:

• maximum speed: about 2120 km/h;
• combat radius: 550 km;
• ceiling: 15 240 м;
• engine: one turbojet;
• crew: 1 pilot.

Possible armament:

• air-to-air missiles: AIM-9 Sidewinder, AIM-120 AMRAAM;
• air-to-ground missiles: AGM-65 Maverick;
• guided bombs: GBU-12 Paveway II, JDAM;
• 20-mm M61 Vulcan cannon.

The range of destruction depends on the type of weapon, for example:

• AIM-120 AMRAAM: up to 160 km;
• AGM-65 Maverick: 22-27 km.

***

According to the Economist, Ukraine has allegedly already received 10 F-16 fighter jets and by the end of the year their number will increase to 20 (!), the British outlet reported.

In total, Ukraine will be able to count on 79 F-16 fighters.

***

Unfortunately, it is difficult to assess how the arrival of 10 F16s will affect the course of hostilities.

They will definitely become priority targets for Russia, and such a small number is unlikely to change the disposition of forces.

However, it is possible to predict how they can be used:

1. Integration of the F16 into the existing air defense system (more missiles will be shot down).
2. Protecting critical infrastructure (together with additional Patriots).
3. Supporting ground operations.
4. Conducting reconnaissance missions.

In real combat conditions, the F-16 fighters provided to Ukraine will have an approximate parity with Russian MiG-31BM interceptors.

The F-16 has much less radar visibility than the MiG-29, which means that it will be much more difficult to target it from a long distance.

At the same time, the F-16 itself is armed with the AIM-120D air-to-air missile, which has a declared range of about 180 km.

Ukrainian F-16AMs will be practically on equal footing with the dangerous Russian MiG-31BMs, as their radar range practically brings them to parity due to related factors.

In a confrontation with Su-27/30/34/35 and MiG-29/35, the Ukrainian American will either have an advantage, for example, over Su-27/30 and MiG-29, or equal opportunities with Su-34/35 and MiG-35.

What ground targets will be prioritized for the F16:

• enemy command posts;
• ammunition and fuel depots;
• radar stations;
• bridges and other infrastructure elements;
• armored vehicles (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers)
• artillery installations.

Well.

It is too early to draw conclusions.

August will be indicative to assess the change in forces.

One thing is clear. Ukraine has aircraft that can fight Russia almost on equal terms and that will strengthen the air defense system.

This means:

• there will be less air support for the Russian army;
• there will be fewer launches of guided bombs and those who launch them;
• the number of downed Russian air targets will increase;
• the number of destroyed headquarters and warehouses will increase;
• Ukrainian energy and critical infrastructure will be better protected.

Source

About the author. Anatolii Amelin, co-founder and director of economic programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.