For most Trump supporters, Ukraine is a non-issue – political scientist Piontkovsky

The attempted assassination of Trump is much more serious than some kind of prank by a killer or a madman, because it raises the problem of America's internal reconfiguration to an unprecedented level. Trump's victory is already becoming a reality, although Joseph Biden is holding his own. But there has been another reshuffle in the United States: Trump appointed J. D. Vance as a potential vice president. This figure may indicate certain parallel lines voiced by Viktor Orban. This is all extremely serious, and Putin is in a hurry.

Yes, you're right, this is a very important political event, a very important indicator of the election - Trump's choice of vice president. We remember very well his activities in blocking aid to Ukraine - he hates Ukraine more than anyone in the US Congress. For the past 5 months, he has been on TV and at congressional hearings, spreading all kinds of lies and hatred for Ukraine - that aid is being stolen, that 20 parties are banned in the totalitarian state of Ukraine, that prominent Christian preachers are imprisoned by the Ukrainian government. It was he who influenced the Republican fundamentalists who are quite numerous in Congress.

In fact, this stance did not provide any electoral advantages to Trump. Within the party, the heads of three commissions (McCaul, Rogers, and Turner) have reported on how Ukraine can win and sharply criticized Biden for not supporting Ukraine enough. Ordinary voters never pressured Trump to oppose Ukraine. For the overwhelming majority of Trump's supporters, Ukraine does not exist at all; they hardly know where it is located. Meanwhile, the Republican establishment, represented by the leaders mentioned, strongly supports Ukraine. Therefore, this appointment demonstrates how dependent Trump is in this position.

It is no coincidence that Orban, Trump, and now his new vice president, Vance, are a team that is working hard on a plan to surrender Ukraine. Trump's so-called 24 hour plan is essentially Putin's plan to force Ukraine to give up territory and agree to a ceasefire without any guarantees for Ukrainian security.

So, Trump's plan is very simple: he would issue an ultimatum to our leadership and make certain proposals to the Kremlin. For us, it would involve the issue of support with ammunition, weapons, and so on. For Russia, Trump might threaten with something, but Putin would likely raise the stakes and simply disagree. This plan, which American journalists claim Trump voiced, would have been doomed from the start and would have come at our expense. Right?

No, it wouldn't. All these stories about how Trump will pressure Putin are just empty rhetoric. The essence of the Trump-Putin plan remains the same: to solidify Russia's territorial gains as much as possible. Putin seeks this because he has realized that the war he declared on February 24, 2022 ("Kyiv in three days" and "NATO, take your stuff and get out of here!") is a lost cause. He needs to secure an "honorable draw" to present to his domestic audience. This so-called honorable draw involves the surrender of Ukraine and its territorial division.

How would Putin see all this? Perhaps no one would let him realize this. However, he has gone astray even in his false signals of readiness for negotiations. He often refers to the Istanbul talks, but he has completely reshaped them to suit his ambitions. When he talks about some unsigned Istanbul agreements, we understand that the original version was about something entirely different. Now, he's trying to annex territories he hasn't captured and won't capture.

This is an unprecedented peace offer in the history of the world: give me the territories that I have not captured, I cannot capture Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, so please give me Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. This is all talk. But he hopes that Trump will win and join his pressure on Ukraine. Now is a crucial moment - how the Democratic Party will react. It has a chance to win the election against Trump, but it will require a non-standard solution and a complete change of personnel and policy.

It's obvious that every hour—I've been watching American television before we got here—Biden is becoming a laughingstock in politics, and many are demanding that he leave. This is a real scenario. The American Democrats don't seem to understand that it's not just necessary to remove Biden from the race; he must resign as president. Why? Because then Harris automatically becomes the acting president until the end of the term. If she becomes the Democratic candidate, she will have more opportunities and powers as president.

Don't forget that there is a very deep split within the Republican Party beneath the surface of the convention that is taking place now. On the one hand, there's the Trump gang, Vance, who is doing Putin's bidding, and on the other hand, there are the three wonderful committee chairmen we've already mentioned, McCaul, Rogers, and Turner, who are the authors of the plan for Ukraine to win.

I propose to make the plan public, published in Washington in Russian and English, with a proposal: Biden resigns for health reasons, Harris takes the oath of office and, as her first step, adopts the document - the Republican report on Ukraine's victory.

By the way, it was the Republicans who passed the Military Assistance Act, requiring the administration to report to Congress within 45 days on its plan for the war in Ukraine. The 45 days would pass, and on her first day, Harris would be expected to present the Republican plan as the administration's plan. This is a significant step—imagine a Democratic president presenting a Republican plan for U.S. goals in the war in Ukraine, a move toward unifying the political elite. During her term in office, she would position herself as the leader of the free world, leading the fight against terrorist regimes and autocrats who have declared war. She would do this through her political statements and military and political decisions, particularly by coordinating with French President Macron to provide a large number of aircraft, including those flown by Western crews.

Does Harris have any sociological chances? Oddly enough, after the assassination attempt on Trump, sociology still showed that he was starting to get ahead of incumbent President Biden by 1.5%. Although this is actually negligible.

And this is what I mean.  It's not about changing names, it's about changing logic and policy. By adopting this Republican program, it seems to be abandoning Biden's policy of cowards. The Democrats must become the party of victory in Ukraine in order to defeat Trump. Because this is the weakest point of the Republican Party - as I said, it is split between supporters of victory and supporters of Putin's coercion to surrender.

If the Democratic Party, represented by Harris, completely changes its program on Ukraine, adopting the Republican program of McCaul, Rogers, and Turner, what will Trump and Vance do? They are completely bound by their plan for the surrender of Ukraine, and they will be strongly opposed to it, and thus will finally discredit themselves as Putin's agents.

There are two more indicators, or manifestations, of political processes that relate not only to the domestic American agenda, but also to global players: Elon Musk made a multimillion-dollar donation to Donald Trump's campaign. We have seen an eloquent photo with the recent British Prime Minister, Johnson, a favorite of all Ukrainians. This means that a much bigger and broader game is being played.

Musk's position is well known; he has never been a friend of Ukraine. To win against Trump, the Democratic Party must completely change its stance on Ukraine. Even after the NATO summit press conference, Biden continued his misguided rhetoric about avoiding escalation. In my opinion, he is the only person in the administration still prohibiting Ukrainians from striking deep into Russian territory. He speculated that Moscow could be struck in the same way—how is that possible? He said this the day after a horrific terrorist attack on Kyiv, and attacks on Ukrainian cities are happening every day.

The only way for the Democrats to avoid defeat is to force Biden to resign and nominate Harris, who will take an offensive stance on the war in Ukraine. Moreover, this is not just a matter of campaigning; in the few months that Harris will be president, she and Macron can make a big difference on the battlefield if they take this decisive step.

For the first time, Zelenskyy specified the exact number of aircraft Ukraine needs. Although I had previously stated that 200 aircraft were required, Zelenskyy mentioned a seemingly odd number—128. This non-round figure surprised many. Experts explained that this number reflects the aircraft needed if France, the UK, and Sweden each provide squadrons of 10-12 aircraft as negotiated. Therefore, 128 represents the total needed based on these specific squadron arrangements.

But the most important thing is to overcome the last stupid red line, which Macron called for. This is a red line that we imposed on ourselves, that only Ukrainian pilots should be flying the aircraft. This requirement is delaying the F-16 handover for two years. Yes, there will be a maximum of 40 Ukrainian pilots who can participate in this action. But in order to change the course of the war, to throw the Russian army out of Crimea and thereby cause a deep political crisis in Russia, 128 aircraft are needed, and I agree with Zelenskyy, 128 aircraft.

Harris is the only chance for the Democrats to defeat Trump and take a firm position to win the war in Ukraine.

But Putin is in a huge hurry right now. The Donetsk offensive is in full swing. It's 40 degrees in the shade, the interventionists are running out of heavy armor, they are regularly throwing away living force, which is turning into dead force. And if it were a matter of Trump's coming or not coming, Putin could have dragged this campaign on, but no - he is hysterically accelerating.

Of course, this is Putin's last chance before Trump comes. Nuclear blackmail has failed after Macron's remarkable response - when Putin threatened him with nuclear weapons, he replied: don't forget, France also has nuclear weapons. And look how the tone of Russian propaganda channels has changed - they are now threatening the West with completely different things: "we will kill French and English pilots", "we will shoot at airfields.”

Of course, this plan to support Ukraine with air power envisages that French, British, and Swedish aircraft will be based at airfields in Romania and Poland. And Moscow is always threatening to strike these airfields - fine, let them, then they will immediately face not 128, but 6,000 aircraft that NATO has. Putin is desperately trying to hold out for what he hopes will be a Trump victory, when he joins the program of forcing Ukraine's surrender.

Were they going to fulfill Putin's dream of a grounded capture?

Well, we've already talked about how Putin wants to fix the division of Ukraine.

The European Union is not going to do that. Ukraine does not go for it. Ursula von der Leyen has now been re-elected as President of the European Commission. The European Commission and all European forces representing the EU at least have condemned Viktor Orban's trip and said that no one gave him a mandate.

No current Western politician will accept Putin's plans to divide Ukraine. For instance, two years ago, when Macron was still president, he, along with Scholz and Draghi, visited Kyiv with a plan for a truce. However, after being shown the atrocities in Bucha, they did not even dare to propose their plan.

Imagine how much progress the consciousness of Western politicians has made in these two years. No one will discuss this plan, except for one person - Trump. Therefore, all Putin's chances, all his hopes, are for Trump to come to power. Democrats can undermine this situation within the Republican Party by adopting the Republican plan as their program for achieving Ukraine's victory.

What was the main functionality of Orban's plan?

What functionality is there - Orban was taken on by a well-known fraudster in Ukraine, Mohilevich, back in the late 1990s, and Moscow is well aware of this, he is completely in Moscow's hands and follows all of Putin's orders.

The question arises: why has Trump always been so respectful of Putin and why is he meeting him halfway now, fulfilling his dirtiest assignment - organizing the coercion of Ukraine to surrender? The same simple reason - it is clear that he is dependent on Putin. We can only guess why exactly. Do you remember the famous scene - the first summit between Putin and Trump in Helsinki? They were in the same room together for an hour and a half, and then they came out - Putin, triumphant, smiling like a thug, and Trump's huge carcass in a crushed state, mumbling something, repeating that he believed Putin and did not believe his intelligence services - Putin showed him documents proving Trump's complete dependence.

So, this whole company that works for Putin-Trump, Orban, Vance-is working because they are afraid of Trump and Orban being exposed.

What was in Orban's pockets—why did he make this trip?

Orban is an intermediary between Putin and Trump. In the sense of not just an intermediary who discusses something and delivers messages initially, but a second intermediary. Trump communicates with Putin all the time. First, he sent Carlson to Moscow as an intermediary, and then Putin sent him Orban. So they agreed on the parameters of this plan, and Orban traveled to China on Putin's behalf to inform Beijing and ask for its support.

But that's nothing, everything will be decided on the battlefield. The Democratic Party can save itself, the United States, and the world by not just replacing candidate Biden with candidate Harris, but by radically changing its agenda, especially on the Ukrainian issue, using a very strong move - adopting the Republican program. But not the Trump-Vance program, but the McCaul-Rogers-Turner program. The coming days will be crucial.

Medvedchuk has written a letter to the Trump campaign saying that there is a Ukrainian trace in the assassination attempt on Trump.

By the way, Medvedchuk has been activated by Russian propaganda. In this whole program of pressure on Ukraine, some new Moscow hetman is needed. Moscow had two candidates for this role - Yanukovych and Medvedchuk. It seems that in this phantom game of his, Putin chose Medvedchuk, who fits very organically into this project. But this project, no matter what it is, no matter how Washington behaves, will never be accepted by Ukraine - Moscow does not understand this.