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OPINION

Erdogan's peace plan: what's wrong with it

15 April, 2024 Monday
18:21

Erdogan took a rather strange step: he sent Zelenskyy and Putin a 'peace plan' that did not even theoretically contain any points acceptable to Ukraine. Why did he do this?

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Among the points:

  • freezing the war along the current front line;
  • a commitment to hold an all-Ukrainian referendum on the country's foreign policy course in 2040, as well as referendums under international control in all Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia at the time of the war's freezing (i.e. another "referendum under the gun of Russian soldiers");
  • Russia will not object to Ukraine's accession to the EU;
  • Ukraine will agree to a non-aligned status (i.e., refuse NATO and security guarantees);
  • a ban on interference in internal affairs in any way that could lead to destabilisation of the government (is this about closer cooperation with the EU, the US and NATO?).

Obviously, such a meaningless and unnecessary document is suitable for only one thing: to indicate that Turkey is still involved in the process, that it has not ceded the initiative to China at least.

''In other words, it is a desire to preserve at least the appearance of foreign policy activity (if not effectiveness) of Erdogan, who has significantly lost ground at home after the local elections.''

If they do laugh in Erdogan's face, it is unlikely to reach Turkish voters. Instead, they can be convinced that Erdogan still keeps Turkey among the flagships of the continent's foreign policy.

In addition, this may be a chance to get a package of lucrative contracts from Putin again, as the publication of Erdogan's "plan" almost coincided with Putin's own statement about his desire for negotiations: "I agree that we need to return to the draft Istanbul agreement with Ukraine." In addition, Putin expressed resentment that Russia was not invited to the peace conference in Switzerland.

Thus, the objectives of the "plan" are more domestic political: to support Erdogan's authority and to get some more economic benefit from Russia.

Source

About the author. Oleksiy Holobutsky, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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