Espreso. Global

Offensive on Kharkiv. Russians are learning

16 May, 2024 Thursday

But what kind of Russians? Soldiers at the tactical level, commanders at the operational level, but do stupid Soviet generals learn and can they learn at the strategic level?


Actually, I don't believe in it, but we will be able to see for ourselves in the coming months in Kharkiv.

The fact is that an attack on Kharkiv would be a colossal strategic miscalculation by the Russian command. Why? Because it already happened in February 2022. Now the Russians are attacking along the entire front: Robotyne, Krynky, Vuhledar direction, Chasiv Yar, Krasnohorivka, Kupyansk direction. They suffer huge losses every day and need huge replenishment.

 And in the absence of major breakthroughs, they open up another direction. Of course, the goal is to stretch Ukrainian resources. But we are defending ourselves and suffer much less losses. So for the Russians, this means another area of losses in equipment and people, which must be constantly replenished.

I understand that many "smart people" will now start writing to me, saying something about Putin's unlimited meat and resources. I heard it all back in March ‘22, when I argued that the Russians would have to retreat in many areas. There are no unlimited resources, and the more they are spent, the sooner they will run out.

Putin does not like defeats, even the smallest ones. Therefore, there must be advancement in all directions, which means even more forces and resources, which in fact are simply spread over a very long distance of the frontline. At the same time, each kilometer of advance costs hundreds of soldiers and dozens of equipment units.

So, in fact, the opening of the Kharkiv direction is a strategic mistake that they have already made. It was the spreading of troops on 7 invasion directions that led to the disaster of Putin's plans in 2022.

Now for a bit of unpleasant truth. At the strategic level, war looks completely different. It requires maneuvering, stretching the Russian forces, sacrificing something, imposing unwanted battles on them, exhausting them, etc. Therefore, the first and foremost thing that everyone should learn is that a lost territory or settlement is not a catastrophe or defeat. Yes, these are our lands, yes, these are our people, but we need to think about how to win the war, not every battle that the enemy imposes. We are smaller, and with disabled partners, we will never win a war head-on. We need to maneuver, retreat somewhere, counterattack somewhere. The war can only be won by inflicting losses on the enemy that will prevent them from continuing to fight. This is the law of war, which does not depend on our wishes.

As of now, the occupiers' grouping in the Kharkiv direction is almost the same size as in Chasiv Yar. However, Kharkiv is not Chasiv Yar, where the Russian advance is stalled. Therefore, it is obvious that no large-scale offensive on Kharkiv is currently planned. The enemy's goal is to capture a number of settlements and bind Ukrainian forces in their attempts to recapture them.

So should we go along with this plan, when the real direction of the orcs' attack is Chasiv Yar and Vuhledar?

As a military man, I can tell you that I had a full understanding of the Russian actions in the Kharkiv region from the inside. Believe me, they were expected, and the defense forces are more than sufficient. There is a certain plan that our command is implementing, and the Kharkiv direction is a story in which you should trust the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And there is no need to get hysterical at the first bad news. Unfortunately, I am less optimistic about other areas.

Western aid has reached us in a very limited form. If we had everything that has already been allocated, the occupiers would not even be able to cross the border. But this is not the case. When you start writing about mining, you don't realize that we already have serious problems even with mines. And fighting with limited resources and exhausted brigades is really about military talent.

So, amid the bad news about the occupied villages of Kharkiv region, there is also good news - the Russians  continue to be led by the same stupid creatures who planned the worst invasion operation in history. Sooner or later, this will affect the war. Just like it did in ‘22.


About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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