Are Russians in Crimea preparing for a blockade?

Sources in the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine say that equipment and even military units are being actively redeployed from the western and northern coasts of Crimea. Even large cities such as Sevastopol, Yevpatoria and Dzhankoi are effectively left without military cover and air defence. Given the number of air defence systems that have been destroyed over the past year, there is a significant shortage of these systems. There are not enough of them to cover the entire area of Crimea. Apparently, the Russian command decided to go the route of creating one more or less safe zone, effectively leaving most of the peninsula to its fate.

Regular strikes on Crimean airfields cause truly irreparable losses to Russian combat aircraft. The only way out was for the Russian command to redeploy its aviation under the newly created umbrella.

To this end, the modernisation of the abandoned Kirovske airfield near Cape Feodosia and Baherove airfield near Kerch has begun. The plans call for the construction of enclosed hangars for combat aircraft, which indicates significant efforts on the part of the Russians to secure their military assets. However, the implementation of these plans will be complicated due to the complexity of the technological process and the semi-dilapidated state of the Baherove airfield.

The Russian military is trying to preserve its important resources by moving them to the eastern part of the peninsula. The modernisation of remote airfields and the movement of equipment may indicate preparations for a possible redeployment of major forces deeper into the peninsula. This indicates the possibility of further deterioration of the situation in the region.

It is symptomatic that the Russian-installed authorities generally ignore security risks to the civilian population.

Russian children are brought to the resorts of Crimea on state-funded vouchers, in particular from the Orenburg and Belgorod regions. Preference is given to children with disabilities and from low-income families.

This indicates an attempt to conceal real threats. And, quite possibly, even to hide behind civilians from particularly vulnerable groups. After all, the number of public beaches around military facilities is steadily increasing.

At the same time, high-ranking Russian officials and military personnel are actively evacuating their families from Crimea, as confirmed by a number of sources. Part of the headquarters structure of the Russian Black Sea Fleet has also been relocated to Novorossiysk. Although Russian propaganda claims that the situation in Crimea is under control, recent statements by State Duma deputy Mikhail Sheremet that Crimea is "ready for a blockade" indicate that the Russian command is preparing for a significant deterioration of the situation for itself.

Source

About the author. Oleksandr Antoniuk, political expert, serviceman

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.