Russia intends to create humanitarian catastrophe for Europe, similar to 2015 refugee crisis

The editor-in-chief of Ukraine’s Obozrevatel media outlet wrote about it on his Telegram channel.

Everything is clear with Niger: its leader has long been "praying" to Washington and ignored Putin's summit. Rwanda and the DRC sent ministerial-level delegations to Russia. On the one hand, both states are trying to declare their pro-Western orientation, and on the other hand, they are not shy about dealing with the Wagner PMC. 

Why did the Kremlin pit one of its satellites against another? The point is the complex of Russian imperialism: this thing is expensive and only superpowers, the wealthy and technologically advanced, can do it. Putin's expansionism is essentially a cheap version of Soviet colonialism, which includes mainly blackmail and threats and small-scale financing in the form of bribes and handouts. Due to its backwardness, the Kremlin cannot initiate any constructive actions, so Moscow's main export product is crises, or rather chaos. This was the case in Syria in 2015, when the Russians played on the contradictions between the Assad government, the United States, and ISIS terrorists. It was the Russians who fueled the largest refugee crisis in North Africa and the Middle East.

The DRC is a relevant site for a new humanitarian crisis: eastern Congo is a paradise for rebel movements. There are about 120 groups here. Two of them are directly involved in current events. The first is the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), formed in 2000 by former members of the regime who organized the genocide in Rwanda and dream of returning to power. The second is M23, created in 2012 by Congolese Tutsis with the support of Rwanda and Uganda. It's easy to guess who is friends with whom in this scenario.

Formally, the "small victorious war" should help Rwandan leader Paul Kagame to be re-elected in 2024: he has been in power since 2000 and is "a little bit" tired of his countrymen. On the other hand, the Congo accounts for more than 70% of the world's cobalt production, with China being its largest consumer. The Kremlin decided that the Congolese government was less stable than the Rwandan one, so it decided to play it safe. And at the same time to increase its importance over its Chinese partners "with the help of a rusty Kalashnikov rifle."

But "educational measures" are not the Kremlin's only goal in the campaign. As in both previous world wars, Africa is once again becoming an important theater of war.  African conflicts tend to be viral in nature: they are carried out through proxy extremists, such as PMCs, and have an impact on Europe. The events in Sudan, Niger, and the DRC are just the beginning. Moscow is obviously betting on a cascade of African crises. This is exactly how the 2014-2016 crisis, which resulted in several million migrants from North Africa and the Middle East entering Europe, was fueled.

Another attempt by the Russians to cut off grain exports from Ukraine is an attempt to "heat up" the tense military situation in some regions of Africa with hunger: either the world is giving in to blackmail, or a number of African countries are facing a humanitarian catastrophe. Heated conflicts should strengthen the Kremlin's arguments. The result is the destabilization of entire regions and new refugee crises on Europe's borders.

Russia's African escapades pose great risks for Ukraine. Since extinguishing cascading conflicts in Africa will require diplomatic efforts and finances from the world's largest powers, the focus may partially shift from Ukraine.

The Kremlin is counting on tired European bureaucrats and frightened African governments to decide that it is easier to push the Ukrainian issue off the top of the agenda and put out more pressing fires. But there is also the United States, which is capable of seeing a comprehensive picture of the world.