Why Erdogan should not be considered Ukraine’s ally

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again demonstrated to Putin that he is pursuing his own policy and acting only in his own interests. Speaking at the 4th summit of the Crimean Platform, he said that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law, and Turkey has always supported Ukraine's territorial integrity. But even in this game, Erdogan is primarily interested in his own benefit.

Why would Erdogan, who is about to join the pro-Chinese BRICS, support Ukraine by stabbing the bunker old man in the back?

First, he feels haughty about “Vladimir's friend.” Turkey is a NATO member, successfully trades with Europe and the rest of the world, and does not depend on Russia for anything. And Erdogan himself is happy to play the role of a peacemaker. It is the EU countries that should look at their neighbors and pursue a coordinated policy. And the United States has to satisfy senators from all states. Only Erdogan himself can forbid something to Erdogan.

Secondly, Erdogan, like Putin, has phantom pains about the imperialist past. For almost 700 years, the Ottoman Empire's borders encircled a large part of modern Europe, Asia, the Russian Caucasus, and North Africa. But unlike bunker man, Erdogan understands that today it is somehow outdated to take land from neighbors by force. But influencing them economically is quite possible and very profitable. It is a kind of empire of influence, and Erdogan is one of the key influencers in the region. 

Thirdly, the prudent Erdogan balances between the political poles of the world: he does not impose sanctions against Russia, but supplies Ukraine with weapons, does not cut diplomatic ties with Russia, and is ready to act as a guarantor of peace talks. While Putin is destroying himself in the war in Ukraine, Erdogan is expanding his zone of influence to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and even Iran. Ankara is even ready to become a “translator” between NATO and the Global South.

Fourthly, there are 55 centers of Crimean Tatars in Turkey; according to various estimates, the Crimean Tatar diaspora in Turkey ranges from 1 to 7 million people. And they all consider Crimea to be Ukrainian, so the country's leader should not neglect their loyalty. 

Erdogan's Turkey is seeking to create its own pole on the world stage. The country has many accompanying factors for this: a luxurious location between Asia and Europe, control of the Bosphorus, membership in NATO, and soon in the BRICS or even the SCO. It failed to become a member of the EU, so now Erdogan is opposing himself to the EU.

It is important to finalize Erdogan's political portrait. He is ready to take drastic steps where even NATO is helplessly complaining and shrugging.

• Remember how Turkey immediately shot down a Russian Su-24 in 2015 on the border with Syria when it violated the country's airspace.
• Erdogan closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles to all warships, and Russia was the first to suffer.
• He organized a “grain corridor”... when Russia was unwilling to negotiate, two dozen tankers with Russian oil were “stuck” in the Bosphorus Strait.
• He also supplied Ukraine with Bayraktars, and now the president's son-in-law will build a plant for their production on Ukrainian territory. 
• He returned the Azov commanders in 2023, although he promised the Kremlin to keep them in Turkey until the end of the war. 

Erdogan is doing and not explaining anything to Putin. Compare this to NATO, which rolls its political eyes every time Russian drones or aircraft “mistakenly” enter their airspace. 

But it is rash to consider him an ally of Ukraine. He is a situational ally, acting on the basis of the logic of his political strategy - Turkey's leadership. The country is becoming a more prominent global player: Erdogan will enter into controversial alliances, embrace Putin, trade Russian oil, and at the same time put the bunker man in his place. The good news is that he is second in line - after Xi Jinping - to dismantle the Russian empire... when the time comes, of course.

So the scales of Erdogan's internal integrity will always be equal.

Source

About the author. Orest Sohar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors .