Putin's nuclear strike: truth or lie?

1. Most people are wrong when they think that the greatest tragedy for Putin is the collapse of the USSR. The collapse of the Union was preceded by another crisis (perhaps the main tragedy) - the Caribbean. If Khrushchev had not been afraid then, history would have gone differently and the Union (Russia) would have won then. Putin is now approaching his "Caribbean crisis" and it turns out that he is still not ready for it. First of all, morally.

2. The thing is that he was about the model leaving: "The West will get scared and retreat." And then something happened that he could not have predicted: all the crises that he planned to create for the collective West are partially falling apart. Europeans will not freeze this year, there will be no hunger wars in North Africa, inflation did not cause the collapse of the collective West and, finally, energy blackmail led to a reassessment of basic values ​​(including the greens are ready to restore nuclear power plants).

3. Shoigu's calls to his colleagues are calls about negotiations. Not about the dirty bomb, but about negotiations. The training on Russia's nuclear response, which Putin is conducting with Shoigu, is also about negotiations. He is simply crying out to the whole world: talk to me. So far, luckily for us, no one can hear that cry.

4. Just so that we all understand: Putin is planning negotiations based on the tactics of small agreements in exchange for concessions (for example, continuation of the operation of the grain corridor in exchange for some big concessions to Russians).

5. At the same time, in Russia, they decided to try to minimize the influence of the most aggressive party: the "warrior party". The main speakers of this party now are Prigozhin and Kadyrov (Girkin is temporarily silent). I recommend that everyone pay attention to the appearance of ex-head of Roscosmos Rogozin at the front. There is no use for him, of course zero, but judging by everything, he should play the role of an information balancer for Kadyrov and Prigozhin. And now such balancers are clearly increasing. In Russia this is simple: if you cannot fight something or lead something, you have to blur this "something" with a mass of fake news from a mass of fake rubbish. Soon, the number of "military commanders" will be greater than the number of military personnel. And in the information space, according to the author of this story, Kiriyenko, the number of loud screamers about how the Ministry of Defense is behaving incorrectly should decrease. In fact, as a result, either there will be no one in real or virtual life, or Prigozhin and Kadyrov will continue to destroy army authority.

6. We should pay separate attention to Sobchak and her escape. The head of Rostech (all the latest technologies, which are not available) Chemezov, on Putin's personal orders, wrote a statement about blackmail by Sobchak's managers.  Translated into human language, this means: Sobchak had materials on Chemezov (obviously something about corruption) and offered the following: I don't publish it, you pay money. Putin's vertical decided to start persecuting Sobchak, who was still considered untouchable. For Putin, such a step is always very difficult, and for Sobchak, it is a double difficult. Apparently, this is already the last signal to everyone: Russian Federation is moving to espionage and even more screwing the nuts. For Putin, this means that he finally breaks not only with past sentiments, but also with individual decision-making. And for Putin's entourage, this is just a bell: if he betrayed Sobchak, there are no authorities. The model of the existence of untouchable celestials is dead.  The path to terror is open.

7. Back to the dirty bomb. Whether Putin launches it or not is irrelevant to Russia's defeat. For the West, this is Russian sabotage. For China and India, it is a weakness when such a strong country cannot defeat such a weak one as Ukraine by non-nuclear methods. Moreover, Putin will take his time. Current nuclear drills are warnings that neither side believes anymore. And Putin will not be able to rewrite history and rewrite the Caribbean crisis.

About the author: Vadim Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.