Putin manipulates grain deal to extract West’s concessions, undermine support for Ukraine 

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has published a report on this.

According to experts, Putin continues to make efforts to sow intra-NATO and Ukrainian-NATO divisions, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts on the Black Sea Grain Initiative and undermine the West's long-term support for Ukraine.

“The Russian military’s intensifying strikes against Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure and threats of maritime escalation in the Black Sea likely aim to pressure the West to acquiesce to these demands among other things.[31] The Kremlin routinely engages in escalatory rhetoric aimed at prompting Western concessions and often will have some officials promote that rhetoric while having other officials feign willingness to engage in negotiations,” the analysts say.

It is noted that the Kremlin seems to be trying to soften the July 19 statement by the Russian Defense Ministry about viewing civilian ships in the Black Sea as legitimate military targets.

According to ISW analysts, Russia is maneuvering to retain the ability to modify the existing agreement rather than negotiate a completely new one, as it seeks to extract significant concessions from the West.

Moreover, the Russian MFA is likely trying to assert that Russia is still a de jure participant in the agreement despite its exit from the grain deal in an effort to leave open a channel for Russia to renegotiate the grain deal on conditions more favorable to Russia.

Russia’s exit from the grain deal and Putin's threats

On July 16, the last ship loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products under the initiative left the port of Odesa. On 17 July, Russia announced the termination of the grain deal. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that it was necessary to continue using the grain corridor even despite Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. And Kuleba began urgent consultations at the UN.

The White House condemned Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, which played a crucial role in reducing global food prices.

On July 18, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were "certain risks" for parties trying to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative without Russia's participation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that it was critical to restore transport links across the Black Sea to provide food to the world's most vulnerable countries and to preserve the ability to export Ukrainian goods.

On July 19, it was reported that Ukraine was considering transporting food as part of the grain initiative through the territorial waters of Bulgaria and neighbouring Romania.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement threatening ships heading to Ukraine's Black Sea ports. On the same day, Putin named the conditions for Russia's return to the grain deal and demanded their immediate implementation

The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said that the only response to Russia's threats to fire on Ukrainian grain ships is to increase military aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced that starting July 21, all ships heading to the Black Sea in the direction of Russian seaports and Ukrainian ports in the temporarily occupied territory may be treated by Ukraine as military cargo.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin stated on July 21 that the Russian MoD’s July 19 announcement that the Russian military will consider all ships en route to Ukrainian ports as potential military cargo vessels meant that Russian forces will inspect the ships.