Putin becomes issue for Russia to solve, West must remain calm and determined

British military analyst, Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell comments on Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s prospects in his article for Sky News. 

Away from the battlefields, there is mounting evidence that President Putin's authority and support base are eroding.

Is there a whiff of blood in the air surrounding Moscow, and will Putin's obvious issues create an opening for Ukraine to capitalize?

Although Putin would have felt emboldened by Russia's relatively uncomplicated success in annexing Crimea in 2014, he could never have expected that nearly 18 months into his invasion of Ukraine, Russia would get mired in such an attritional and damaging struggle.

"Putin's ambitions to halt the expansion of NATO, restore Russian "greatness", and grow the Russian economy, have all failed to materialize. Instead, NATO has expanded, Russia has become a pariah on the global stage, and its economy is suffering under a mass of Western sanctions," the publication writes. 

Despite being fed a Kremlin-controlled diet of Russia-friendly news, the Russian elite - who Putin needs - are feeling the mounting impact of the sanctions.

Oil and gas earnings remain strong, but the Russian economy is collapsing as over one million fighting-age Russian males flee to evade conscription. Furthermore, the elite will be aware that Putin's indictment by the International Criminal Court will have long-term consequences for Russia's ability to rebuild when the fight is over.

Putin is quickly becoming the issue that Russia must address

Putin would be disturbed about the seeming ease with which Yevgeny Prigozhin was able to advance on Moscow following his failed coup attempt.

Authoritarian leaders rarely retire comfortably; instead, they face a fast and frequently horrific end as a successor surges to power. However, Putin cannot afford a mass purge for fear of igniting the fire of another coup, leaving him unsure of who he can trust.

"Russia's limited military successes to date have been delivered by the Wagner mercenaries, but they can no longer be trusted by Putin. Russia is on the back foot in Ukraine, but Putin will also need to bolster his domestic security, and retaining his grip on power will be a priority. This all places increasing pressure on his limited military resources, forcing compromise and prioritisation, all of which risks diluting military forces in Ukraine," Sean Bell writes. 

A way out, but with losing face

Putin most likely believed that time was on Russia's side at the start of the war, and that the longer the war lasted, the more likely it was that Western unity and resolve would wane.

However, time appears to be on Ukraine's side - Russia continues to lose ground in Ukraine, and Putin is likely to need to find a way out of the crisis without losing face in order to solidify his slipping grip on power.

"That might go some way to explaining why he has pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal and targeted Ukrainian grain - in direct contravention of the Geneva Convention and international law. By reducing the global supply of grain, Putin has driven up prices: this will not hurt the West but will increase Russian profits as the world's leading exporter of grain," the article says. 

It may, however, push the world community to find a means to avert a global famine calamity and apply diplomatic pressure on all sides of the war to compromise. Putin would be wary of calling for a truce because he would be perceived as acting from a position of weakness.

If the international world forced him to negotiate, he could use the chance to end the war in Ukraine, possibly retaining Crimea and parts of the Donbas, ceding the land bridge, and thus declaring triumph in his "special military operation" - at least to a local audience.

A pyrrhic victory for the West, but maybe a lifeline for besieged Putin.