Political analyst tells when Kazakhstan may cut ties with Russia

Alzhanov spoke about this on Espreso TV.

Among the factors that prevent Kazakhstan from cutting ties with Russia is the political leadership of the state, he said. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is not capable of developing towards the European Union, because he does not see the need to end Russia's influence on the country.

The second side is a strategic vision, an understanding of national interests and the rebuilding of internal state institutions, the formation of the army and security. None of this is a priority for the Kazakh authorities.

"After the protests in Kazakhstan last year, the reform concerned how the bodies of the National Security Committee should be better subordinated to the central government, to the president during the suppression of protests, but the question of reorienting them and making them, so to speak, capable of ensuring national security. This issue is not being considered," the political scientist stressed.

According to him, Tokayev and Putin signed an agreement on the training of Kazakh intelligence in Russian educational institutions.

"This means that new opportunities for filtering by the Russian Federation are being created, so I am not sure that the current political leadership, within the framework of the authoritarian regime that exists in Kazakhstan, can have a strategic vision of how to remove Kazakhstan from dependence on Russia. This process will begin, just like in other post-Soviet countries, when the government and the regime change, and then the process will be based more on the needs of society and reflected in public policy," Alzhanov concluded.

• On 5 November, it was reported that Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan plan to sign a 15-year cooperation agreement on gas supply and transit by mid-2024. 
• On 9 November, Vladimir Putin arrived on a visit to Kazakhstan and met with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
• The former head of Kazakhstan's National Security Committee, General Alnur Mussayev, said that at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Putin pressured Tokayev to supply certain types of weapons to the Russian army.