Pace of Ukrainian advance isn't main indicator of counteroffensive – weekly review by military expert Zgurets

Forum of foreign and Ukrainian arms manufacturers takes place in Kyiv

The meeting of arms manufacturers in Kyiv was actually being prepared since spring. At that time, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that it was necessary to create conditions for the production of weapons, rather than taking them from warehouses. It should be manufactured in Ukraine. These days, such an event is taking place in Kyiv. Earlier this week visits by the French, British and NATO defense ministers and the NATO secretary general were somehow related to this forum.

We started working with representatives of foreign companies and our enterprises yesterday. Today, European, American, and Ukrainian arms companies are identifying areas of cooperation. The Ukrainian side declares that this is the first such forum, but this is only a slight exaggeration, as bilateral relations with each country have been established before, but this forum was the first in the context of hostilities. We can already talk about the first results. In particular, France has signed more than 20 agreements with Ukrainian companies to manufacture shell casings.

France has also offered its repair facilities to repair and maintain the light tanks that were transferred to Ukraine. Speaking of other countries, it has been reported that the German company Rheinmetall has received permission from its own government to repair and maintain equipment. Rheinmetall is ready to invest more than EUR 200 million in the production of military equipment in Ukraine. Andriy Yermak also said that we expect experts to help Ukraine determine its needs, and that Ukraine will be helped to establish the production of air defense systems. Ukraine is currently developing two air defense systems on its own. Therefore, I think foreign companies want to participate in these developments. Now the Ukrainian market has become too attractive for foreign companies.

Most intense fighting in the southern sector

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying several artillery brigades to destroy the enemy's reserves and positions in the southern sector. Ukrainian units continue to advance toward the village of Verbove. However, on September 29, the General Staff reported that the Ukrainian army is consolidating its flanks around Robotyne and is conducting constant artillery fire on the enemy to prevent flanking counterattacks. Therefore, we should wait for some time before the Ukrainian army starts active offensive actions again. However, when we talk about active actions, it means a comprehensive approach to offensive operations.

In particular, the actions of small ground and, above all, artillery. Because the Russians are really digging in deep and using fortifications. Therefore, the rate of advance is not the main indicator. The destruction of enemy forces and artillery is now in the forefront. Therefore, the fighting in this area is the most intense.

Map of combat operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector as of September 29

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' advance in the Bakhmut sector

The Defense Forces have established fire control of the Bakhmut-Horlivka road. Our artillery has reached this road before. With our positions in Klishchiivka and Andriivka approaching, we can say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces do indeed have fire control over this road. In my opinion, the enemy is being pushed behind the railroad in the Klishchiivka-Andriivka section. In some areas, Ukrainian units have crossed the railroad.

The enemy is trying to hold this line, but the liberation of Andriivka allows the Defense Forces to press from the north and west on Kurdiumivka and threaten Russian forces further east. I think the Ukrainian army will continue to use the tactics chosen by the General Staff. In particular, first of all, the destruction of the enemy. It is not about liberating Bakhmut, but about creating conditions for maximum losses and blocking the Russian forces. The main goal is to prevent the enemy from transferring its reserves from Bakhmut to other areas.

Map of combat operations in the Bakhmut sector as of September 29