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OPINION

Putin tells China to bugger off. For second time in one week

21 June, 2024 Friday
14:58

In Hanoi, Putin reiterated his stance, for the second time in a week (the first being before the forum in Switzerland), stating unequivocally that he would not agree to any peace plans other than his own ultimatums

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I wrote earlier that the main recipient of Putin's first statement was China. Putin fears being forced to negotiate, and theoretically, only Comrade Xi can force him. Now, he has reiterated this for the second time.

Prerequisites

1. Putin can now tell China to bugger off because he has purchased enough equipment to continue the war. And at the same time, he firmly believes that China will not be able to give up its oil.

2. The visit to the DPRK is, among other things, a demonstration to the West that he can discard the entire old world order without facing repercussions. By disregarding China, he is showing the West that he can also pivot 180 degrees away from China if called to negotiate. Most importantly, he is signaling that he could allegedly become a guarantor of untouchability for a dozen other countries.

3. All of the above suggests that Putin is genuinely experiencing a difficult psychological state after a total victory over his own elites, and it seems to me that he is really getting frustrated (he is not used to waiting so long).

Prospects

1. For some reason (I think, first of all, psychological or even psychiatric), Putin is losing patience and wants to speed up the processes. But being a coward by nature, he always leaves himself a step to retreat. There is a high probability that we will now enter a phase of raising stakes. However, he does not have these stakes. Weel, he does hasve two: total mobilization and nuclear weapons. He is afraid of both of these options, but he is pushing himself to them, driving himself into a situation where he will have no options but the worst.

2. Putin's calculation is that one of the Americans or the Chinese will be the first to come to "calm him down" and then he will start bargaining with them and win them all over again.

Conclusion

The situation is becoming more complicated for Ukraine because the factor of Putin's real psychological breakdown has come into play. I hope this will not go unnoticed in the main capitals.

Source.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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