Military expert Zgurets identifies three key factors influencing Putin's mobilization policy

He shared the information on Espreso TV.

“If we assess Russia's capacity to recruit soldiers through contracts while considering their losses, they can currently sign contracts to reinforce their army or compensate for losses at an average of 30,000-35,000, with a maximum of 40,000 personnel per month. However, in the first half of the year, the number of individuals willing to sign contracts in Russia has decreased. This indicates that there are fewer people willing to go to war compared to last year, when significant payments greatly stimulated contract signings,” explained Zgurets.

According to the expert, Russia has now begun to increase payments for signing contracts. While this helps maintain a certain level of army strength, it does not provide a significant strategic advantage.

“Putin is trying to adhere to the strategy of ensuring that the war does not impact larger segments of society to avoid backlash. He believes this approach will allow him to hold out until 2025, when it may become clearer how the Russian side should proceed. However, Russian generals are facing a different reality: despite their considerable resources, they are contending with the actions of the Ukrainian side, which is effectively resisting Russian advances. The enemy is often met with surprise, as seen in the Kursk region, where reserves must be redeployed to new areas. It remains uncertain whether these are the only areas that could open up along the Russian border,” noted Zgurets.

The expert added that uncertainty does affect Russian generals, who are looking for an easy way to increase their numbers.

“But beyond the sheer number, there is the issue of having enough personnel to effectively manage the mobilized troops. Most importantly, there are limitations in the quantity of weapons and equipment available. Russia's reserves are not unlimited, especially regarding armaments,” emphasized Zgurets.

The expert summarized that three factors—unwillingness to create internal social tension, restrictions on weapons for new units, and limitations on command personnel—all influence Putin's mobilization policy.

• Earlier, Bloomberg reported, citing sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin, that the Russian army is experiencing a shortage of soldiers amid the highest losses since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Because of this, the Russian authorities may announce a new wave of mobilization.
• In early September, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Russian authorities were not discussing a new mobilization in the country.