245 Russian military targets in ATACMS range: Ukraine needs U.S. approval for long-range strikes - ISW

The ISW reports.

Anonymous senior U.S. officials have suggested that the redeployment of Russian warplanes from airfields within the range of ATACMS somehow diminishes the validity or importance of Ukraine's request, analysts write, citing a Politico article. It is reported that Russian troops have allegedly moved 90% of the planes that carry out strikes with planning bombs further away from airfields within the range of Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles.

“The redeployment of Russian aircraft from 16 Russian air bases in range of ATACMS does not reduce the importance of allowing Ukraine to use ATACMS against hundreds of other Russian military objects, however, nor does the reportedly small number of ATACMS the U.S. has provided,”  say the Institute's military experts. 

U.S. policy continues to restrict Ukraine from using ATACMS to strike at least 245 known Russian military and paramilitary targets, of which only 16 (6.5%) are air bases, as of August 26, 2024.

The maximum range of Ukrainian HIMARS, which the United States allows Ukraine to use in Russia with restrictions, covers 20 such facilities. 

At least 225 known sites are within the ATACMS range, but not within the HIMARS range. At least 209 of the 245 (over 85%) known Russian military sites in the ATACMS coverage area are not airbases. ISW has provided a list of these sites with coordinates and an interactive map.

“Ukrainian forces are using indigenous long-range strike systems to hit some of these targets, but they do not appear to have many such systems - so the relatively small number of ATACMS Ukraine has reportedly received could make significant difference,” ISW explains.

The argument that the limited redeployment of Russian aircraft from 16 airfields makes the discussion of lifting U.S. restrictions on ATACMS somehow moot ignores the hundreds of these assets outlined in this report. Ukrainian officials are reportedly preparing to present senior U.S. officials with a list of targets in Russia that Ukrainian officials believe Kyiv could strike if Washington lifts U.S. arms restrictions.

It is unlikely that the Russian military has redeployed assets from all 245 sites to the same extent as it did with aviation. ISW has found no evidence of military assets being redeployed from most of Russia's rear areas. A massive redeployment of assets from such sites would create significant problems for Russia's logistics base.

ISW added a note that the list of 245 known sites does not include the various field camps and new facilities that the Russian military has built near Ukraine to support Russia's war. Therefore, this list represents only a fraction of all military installations in the ATACMS coverage area. The regimental, brigade and division headquarters listed in this list are mainly relevant to how these facilities facilitate training and serve as storage sites, as the combat units that are usually permanently based there are the frontline units in Ukraine.

ISW is not asserting that the redeployment of Russian aircraft is the only reason for the continuation of the US ban on the use of ATACMS against legitimate military targets in Russia, as ISW is not involved in US decision-making.

“This report is intended to respond to what appears to be an attempt to dismiss the value and importance of reevaluating these restrictions based on a partial presentation of the situation, analysts noted.

What is known

In late May, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that President Joe Biden had secretly authorized Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with U.S. weapons. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the message had come from the United States and called the ally's action a “step forward.”

At the same time, Michael Carpenter, a representative of the US National Security Council, when asked by a journalist whether the authorization applies only to the defense of Kharkiv or to other regions on the border with Russia, such as Sumy region, said: “This applies to Ukrainians being able to defend themselves. Yes, across the border against Russian attacks coming from there.”

On June 5, the Associated Press reported that Ukraine had already used American weapons to strike targets in Russia.