Intense fighting in Russia's Kursk amid Ukraine's counterattacks in Donetsk. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Frontline situation in Donetsk region

For the fourth day in a row, the media space has been dominated by the situation in the Kursk region. However, de facto, the report of the Ukrainian General Staff does not mention this area. The primary focus is on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kramatorsk directions, where the most intense efforts are concentrated. In these areas, Russian forces are making some progress toward Pokrovsk and maintaining a degree of initiative and momentum.

Russian troops pushed into Serhiivka, continued their attacks to the north and reached the outskirts of Hrodivka, made some progress in Zhelanne and Ivanivka. They advanced along the railroad to Pokrovsk. Despite the losses, Russia continues to push in this direction, which is now the primary focus of their efforts.

At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a series of counterattacks that affected both the New York area and the Chasiv Yar zone. These operations have prevented Russian troops from advancing further. The minor gains previously achieved by Russian forces are now being recaptured by the Ukrainian military.

Dynamics of events in Russia's Kursk region

But this raises the question of what is happening in the Kursk region. We have been watching this operation for four days now.

High-intensity fighting continues in the Korenevo and Sudzha districts of the Kursk region. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have cut the Rylsk-Korenevo-Sudzha rocade road and made advances into Russian territory, with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimating the advance at 10 kilometers.

Russian online communities are hysterically reporting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have advanced into the Kursk region, 26 kilometers from the border, to the village of Anastasyevka, and are bypassing the town of Sudzha. However, analysts and observers emphasize that Sudzha is under the control of the Ukrainian armed forces. Overall, it is reported that approximately 350 square kilometers in the Kursk region are now under Ukrainian Defense Forces' control. Ukrainian troops are making advances, and the total area controlled is the result of ongoing hostilities in various sectors. However, the area of 350 square kilometers is quite significant.

Russia is likely to move reserves to this region, which offers advantageous defensive positions due to the presence of rivers and highways. Indeed, it can be held if there is such a goal and purpose.

Amid this, retired Australian General Mick Ryan has provided intriguing assessments. He analyzes the combat actions in Ukraine in detail, praising the operation in the Kursk region and noting that it involves several well-prepared brigades. Unlike the 2023 counteroffensive, these brigades are highly trained. Ryan highlights that the offensive actions are carried out by highly mobile mechanized forces, unlike recent Russian attempts to advance in the Kharkiv direction. This high level of mobility is crucial for exploiting all gaps in the Russian defense.

The general emphasizes that Ukrainians have deployed a significant number of air defense and electronic warfare systems, which greatly limit the effectiveness of the Russian side's traditional main asset - aviation. This is due to the coverage provided by air defense systems. Mick Ryan notes that Ukraine achieved an element of surprise from the outset of this operation. While the battlefield may be transparent, proper planning can ensure both the element of surprise and the ongoing actions in the Kursk region.

When discussing the objectives of this operation, they can be categorized into tactical, operational, and strategic goals. Tactical objectives include holding territory, destroying enemy forces and resources, and capturing Russian soldiers. Operational objectives involve plans or intentions to force Russia to redirect reserves to this sector from other fronts, weakening other areas where the Russian army is advancing or defending.

Regarding the strategic goals of this operation, Australian General Mick Ryan identifies several key aims. First, to slow down or halt the Russian momentum in offensive operations. Second, to shift the narrative of the war to a more favorable position for Ukraine and counter Russian disinformation claiming that Russia is assured of a victory in a war of attrition. Third, a strategic effect could be boosting the morale of the Ukrainian population, considering the prolonged Russian offensive actions and pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

According to the Australian general, the fourth strategic goal is that capturing additional territory in the Kursk region would be advantageous if Ukraine is compelled to engage in negotiations by the end of 2024 or in 2025. It would be more favorable to negotiate with some of the aggressor's territory still held by Ukrainian forces. However, this remains a hypothesis, and there is currently no indication that negotiations or preparations for them are on the agenda.

However, the dynamics of the combat operations in the Kursk region continue. We are monitoring the situation and will assess it in the future, understanding that the course of events in Kursk also affects other fronts.

Kharkiv direction

Now let's discuss the situation in the Kharkiv region.

Colonel Oleksandr Bukatar, commander of the 3rd Battalion of the Spartan Brigade, reported that the situation in northern Kharkiv region is under control. Russia attempts to conduct assault actions, but these are all futile as Ukrainian defenders preemptively break them up. Russian troops have not changed tactics and continue to operate in small infantry groups. Compared to a week or a week and a half ago, Russian aviation has reduced its use of guided aerial bombs (KABs). They continue with "meat grinder" assaults, disregarding their casualties due to having sufficient personnel. However, their equipment is becoming increasingly depleted.

The colonel noted that there is no shortage of ammunition in Ukrainian units, but more weapons are always needed. For instance, FPV drones are more precise and maneuverable, effectively stopping the enemy. Regarding Russian Lancet drones, which are strike UAVs guided by reconnaissance drones, the real nuisance comes from the reconnaissance UAVs like Orlan, Zala, and Supercam. Russian troops have these drones in sufficient quantities and use them extensively. However, Ukrainian Defense Forces have developed methods to shoot down and destroy Russian UAVs. There are specialized teams dedicated to this task. Thus, Ukrainian defenders are gradually learning and reducing these threats.

In summary, as Oleksandr pointed out, the success of holding Ukrainian positions and achieving victory heavily relies on the human factor and the cohesion of teams.