Long war will ruin Russia
There are people who say that Russia benefits from a "long" war. I say that in the strategic perspective, a long war will ruin Russia. Who is right? Everyone is right
The thing is that for most commentators, a "long war" is 3-5 years, because high-intensity conflicts usually don't last that long. From my own viewpoint, a "strategic perspective" is at least 10-12 years, because only then do certain historical patterns become clear.
So, since Russia has more people, tanks, missiles, and money than Ukraine, in a "long war" of 3-5 years, Moscow would simply crush Kyiv with masses if they were to meet in a duel. Even if they had to exchange in a 3:1 ratio.
But fortunately, Ukraine is not alone; it is supported by its allies ( as well as Russia). And this support is enough to offset the initial Russian advantage.
And in 10-12 years, neither old reserves nor new production will save Russia. The year 2024 will be a turning point for both countries, as certain processes launched between 2008 and 2014 will reach their peak (I won't write about them now). And even if the Kremlin withstands this time, the next cycle - until 2035/36 - will definitely be its last.
Why did I write all this? It's easy - before you start arguing, clarify the terms and deadlines with your opponents.
About the author: Serhiy Hromenko, journalist, security expert
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