ISW outlines 3 possible outcomes of Russian troops blowing up ZNPP 

ISW shared the information in its recent report.

A terrorist attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) could have severe consequences for the Russian troops, potentially worse than the challenges they face with a counteroffensive for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, so Russia is likely to continue to threaten a nuclear disaster.

"The likely Russian destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam also adversely impacted Russian forces, however, and possible Russian plans to sabotage the ZNPP cannot be ruled out," ISW noted.

Western analysts also suggested 3 scenarios Russia may turn to regarding the possible outcome in the event of a terrorist attack. In particular:

• Russian forces could discharge irradiated water from the ZNPP into the Kakhovka Reservoir to disrupt a potential Ukrainian crossing of the now largely drained reservoir;

• Russian forces could also attempt to create a radiological plume to cover a larger area of southern Ukraine, although the reactors are designed to make doing so difficult;

• Russian forces could conduct a man-made “accident” that creates a smaller radiological radius immediately focused on preventing Ukrainian advances near the ZNPP itself.

"None of these options provide more military benefit for Russian forces than the likely consequences they would create," the ISW emphasized.

In addition, Russia is resorting to its usual policy of accusing Ukraine of its intentions. The report also called the words of Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who said that Ukraine was allegedly preparing to attack the ZNPP, "preposterous speculations” that are “typical for the Kremlin’s information operations."

"The Kremlin has routinely employed threats of nuclear escalation and have warned of largely Russian created threats to the ZNPP in attempts to pressure Ukraine to constrain its military actions and to prevent further Western support for Ukraine," the analysts explained.

The report concludes that the threat of a nuclear accident at ZNPP could be used by Russia to intimidate Ukraine into stopping a counteroffensive in the southern frontline, as well as to put pressure on the West before the NATO summit in Vilnius.

The threat of terrorism and the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Russians occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP in late February 2022. Since then, there has been a constant presence of personnel and military equipment, which the invaders store in machine rooms and occasionally deploy to positions for shelling the territories of the Nikopol district in the Dnipropetrovsk region, located on the other side of the Kakhovka Reservoir.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has a monitoring mission at the station, which is supposed to ensure that the nuclear power plant is not used as a military base, that it is not attacked, and that no fire is initiated from the NPP. Power outages at the nuclear power plant occur regularly though. Occupiers began importing explosives to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant last year.

It became known in May 2023 that the Russians had placed explosives in the turbine room of the ZNPP’s fourth power unit. Additionally, the invaders have nearly completely destroyed the emergency readiness and response system at the nuclear power plant.

On June 22, the Director-General of the IAEA, after visiting ZNPP Grossi, stated that the situation at the plant is extremely unstable. On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that intelligence had received information that Russia was considering a scenario for a terrorist act at the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which would cause a radiation release. 

The Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that Russia has completed preparations for a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

On June 29, large-scale exercises were held in four regions of Ukraine to prepare for a possible terrorist attack on the ZNPP.

On June 30, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported that the occupying Russian forces were gradually leaving the ZNPP, and that Ukrainian employees who had signed a contract with Rosatom also received evacuation recommendations. In addition, the plant's staff received an order to blame Ukraine in any emergency situation.

The head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russian troops have prepared everything for a man-made disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.