ISW explains why Russia will lose influence in post-Soviet countries
Russia will lose its military influence in post-Soviet countries, as it has redeployed its forces from there to wage war against Ukraine
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"Russia’s redeployment of elements of its “peacekeeping force” from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine is eroding Russia’s influence with Armenia," the report says.
Thus, on March 16, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Azerbaijan of preparing a new large-scale offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh. However, he said that Armenia would have to turn to the UN Security Council if Russia is unable to maintain the ceasefire in the region, which was established by the November 9, 2020, agreement.
"Russia’s “peacekeeping force” in Nagorno-Karabakh is very likely understrength. The Russian military redeployed elements of the 15th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade — Russia's only dedicated peacekeeping brigade — from Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine in March 2022," the analysts emphasize.
The Institute reminded that in June 2022, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian soldiers had inflicted serious losses on the 15th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Federation, killing about 800 and wounding about 400 soldiers out of 1,800 personnel of the brigade who were in Ukraine.
"Russia will likely lose military influence in other post-Soviet states since Moscow has redeployed elements of permanently stationed Russian forces from Russian bases in Kyrgyzstan, occupied Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), and Tajikistan to fight in Ukraine," the analysts said.
ISW’s key conclusions
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